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STATS- was:So that encouraging thing we all say...

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JeffreyHowe View Drop Down
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    Posted: 11 Jan 2018 at 1:06am
...when someone whiffs in the first round? It did in fact happen in group 27, where someone had zero points in round 1, 15 points in round 2, and squeaked into the next round on the tie breaker rule.

Someone also reversed that: group 19's round one winner got no points in round 2 and coasted by in the fifth position.

Average qualifying score was 22.74, median was 22, most common was 21.

Lowest first place total: Group 19, 24 pts.
Highest fifth place total: Group 12, 22 pts.

Highest variance in advancing scores: Several groups  (3, 4, 27) had 14 point spreads (30 to 16 or 29 to 15): 
Lowest variance in advancing scores: Group 12, 6 point spread.






Edited by JeffreyHowe - 11 Jan 2018 at 4:42pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sgspeed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2018 at 1:29am
Interesting statistics. The consistency of the others in your round makes a difference.  Thanks for the stats.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JeffreyHowe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2018 at 2:11am
It does.

A few more crunched numbers: 
average swing (absolute difference between round 1 and round 2) for those who advanced: 3.9
median swing: 3
most common swing(!): 0
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DadOfDavid Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2018 at 2:29am
I am very impressed that someone, despite whiffing on the first round, won the second round and made the cut. Serious props to Nathan Taylor of Monroe, WA. I noticed at least one other person who did that but did not make the cut. There was someone in my group (16) that scored 14 in round two after getting zero in round one.

I am in awe of those people. Heck, I'm in awe of anyone who sent in an entry after getting zero in the first round. Not sure that I would've had the fortitude to try.

Good luck to all!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Adite Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2018 at 2:30am
Wow, screenplay math! Wink I am one of those who got a big fat 0 in the first round and scored a whole TEN points in a genre that I have never written before (comedy). That works for me even though I don't go into the second round! Cheers and congrats to all those who move into Round 2. Good luck!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JeffreyHowe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2018 at 10:43am
I was a geek before I was a writer, now I'm a writing geek. Wink

I may go ahead and run whole-round stats too to see if upswings are more common than downswings, etc.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JeffreyHowe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2018 at 4:42pm
Group Ch1 Genre average of advancers +/- Ch2 Genre average of advancers +/- change from 1 to 2 +/-
1 Rom com 10.40 5.03 Thriller 11.40 3.21 1.00 6.96
2 Ghost story 12.00 1.58 Political satire 11.40 3.58 -0.60 4.67
3 Thriller 11.20 3.56 Historical 10.40 4.04 -0.80 5.63
4 SF 9.20 5.02 Ghost story 12.80 1.92 3.60 5.41
5 Suspense 12.40 2.41 Fairy tale 12.00 2.55 -0.40 3.13
6 Crime caper 10.20 3.70 Drama 12.00 2.74 1.80 5.40
7 Mystery 12.20 3.11 Action/adventure 13.00 1.58 0.80 3.35
8 Comedy 12.00 3.16 Drama 10.40 3.97 -1.60 6.27
9 Horror 12.00 2.55 Historical 12.00 2.24 0.00 3.24
10 Action/adventure 10.60 4.16 Comedy 12.40 2.41 1.80 5.76
11 Ghost story 13.00 1.58 Rom com 10.40 4.62 -2.60 4.10
12 Rom com 13.00 1.58 Horror 12.40 2.41 -0.60 2.97
13 Thriller 11.40 3.65 Comedy 13.00 1.58 1.60 3.21
14 SF 11.00 2.24 Ghost story 11.80 3.27 0.80 4.27
15 Horror 11.60 3.44 Suspense 12.20 2.59 0.60 4.83
16 Spy 11.80 3.96 Mystery 10.80 3.27 -1.00 6.48
17 Romance 11.80 3.56 Thriller 11.00 3.81 -0.80 6.10
18 Political satire 11.60 3.21 Fantasy 11.60 2.41 0.00 3.94
19 Drama 12.00 3.16 Spy 8.00 6.40 -4.00 9.35
20 Fairy tale 10.20 3.27 Horror 11.20 2.59 1.00 4.00
21 Horror 12.40 2.41 Rom com 12.00 2.92 -0.40 3.91
22 Fantasy 11.00 3.39 Mystery 10.60 4.28 -0.40 6.88
23 Romance 11.80 1.92 Crime caper 10.00 4.85 -1.80 5.85
24 Drama 11.60 3.21 SF 11.20 2.86 -0.40 2.88
25 Mystery 12.00 2.55 Fantasy 12.00 1.58 0.00 2.74
26 SF 11.00 2.92 Ghost story 9.80 4.87 -1.20 6.30
27 Comedy 10.00 5.87 SF 11.80 3.96 1.80 8.11
28 Fantasy 10.20 3.19 Action/adventure 10.00 4.74 -0.20 7.36
29 Historical 12.20 1.92 Romance 11.80 3.11 -0.40 2.51
30 Crime caper 12.00 3.54 Drama 9.00 3.87 -3.00 6.28
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JeffreyHowe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2018 at 4:52pm
The averages are for the five advancing writers in each group. 

Change from 1 to 2 is the change in average score of the five advancing writers between rounds 1 and 2.

The +/- is the standard deviation. For those of you not statistically inclined, it's a measure of how "tight" the data is--smaller standard deviations mean the numbers are bunched closer together, larger ones mean they are all over the place.

Interpretation: if you see an average score below 10 it means there was significant turnover in who was in the top 5 between challenge 1 and challenge 2.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MissKeister Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2018 at 4:55pm
Thank you for putting this together -- it's really interesting!
CH4: Selah
CH3 The Gardener - 1st in heat
Ch2: Mercy 14pt
Ch1: Nacho Date 15pt
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pigpen_NYC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2018 at 5:19pm
Love the stats! Thank you. I was going to do something similar but not to this extent.

Edited by Pigpen_NYC - 11 Jan 2018 at 5:19pm
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