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for people with time on their hands: stats

Printed From: NYC Midnight : Creative Writing & Screenwriting
Category: GENERAL DISCUSSION
Forum Name: Screenwriting Bar & Lounge
Forum Description: Discuss NYC Midnight Screenwriting Competitions or Screenwriting in general.
URL: https://forums.nycmidnight.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=19868
Printed Date: 19 Jun 2019 at 11:02am
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Topic: for people with time on their hands: stats
Posted By: JeffreyHowe
Subject: for people with time on their hands: stats
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 10:26am
PART ONE

First: trivia. The lowest possible advancing total score for round one is 15. The highest possible non-advancing total score is 25 (a six way tie, with the person going 13/12 losing out). 

1128 entries
200 advanced

The "I know what I did wrong" award: one entrant with a zero in round one got a fifteen in round two.
The "It was this weekend?" award: two entrants had 15s in round one and zeroes in round two
The "Coast and boast" award: two entrants had 15s in round one, dropped to 2s in round two, and advanced.
The "At the wire" award: one entrant had a 2 in round one, a 14 in round two, and advanced (one of two 16s to advance)

Advancing entrants:
Average round one score 11.59
Average round two score 11.53
Median score for both rounds 12 (yay for rounding)
Average total 23.11 (yay for rounding error)





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R2 H12 Memories and Eggplant



Replies:
Posted By: weebil
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 10:33am
I also noticed that a lot of the top finishers did very well in both rounds, which would imply a solid non-bias in regard to recognizing successful writing skills.
I, on the other hand, got a 3, and then a 11, and I actually thought the first script was stronger-but maybe it was just the concept. I didn't really like my second script.
Sigh. I'm out, but always happy to be creating. 

(a 11? an 11? so much to know)

See ya next time!


Posted By: lisafox10800
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 11:04am
The other interesting thing is that there were a LOT of Round 2 drop offs across groups. If you look at the scoring, some groups had no one score a 1, 2, or even a 3 in some cases. Implying there were not enough participants to pick up these scores. If you cross reference to Round 1, in most cases it was those who did not score points in Round 1 who dropped off in Round 2.

I understand life happens and all of that and sometimes the time you think you have for this disappears with other commitments, but having run the gamut on scoring from 0 points through 15 and everything in between, if you get a zero in round one that should light a fire to come back roaring in the second challenge. (My first 15 pointer came on the heels of a round one goose-egg. I missed out on advancing by three points, but boy did I feel at least a little bit vindicated).

Anyway. Just something I observed looking at the scoring last night.




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https://forums.nycmidnight.com/topic21030_post273945.html#273945" rel="nofollow - Screenplay Round 1 SUSPENSE... it's killing you, I know!


Posted By: Snarkmaiden
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 11:12am
Originally posted by lisafox10800 lisafox10800 wrote:

The other interesting thing is that there were a LOT of Round 2 drop offs across groups. If you look at the scoring, some groups had no one score a 1, 2, or even a 3 in some cases. Implying there were not enough participants to pick up these scores. If you cross reference to Round 1, in most cases it was those who did not score points in Round 1 who dropped off in Round 2.

I understand life happens and all of that and sometimes the time you think you have for this disappears with other commitments, but having run the gamut on scoring from 0 points through 15 and everything in between, if you get a zero in round one that should light a fire to come back roaring in the second challenge. (My first 15 pointer came on the heels of a round one goose-egg. I missed out on advancing by three points, but boy did I feel at least a little bit vindicated).

Anyway. Just something I observed looking at the scoring last night.



I noticed that too, and that would mean that in some groups only 12 or 13 people were actually competing for the marks - which would explain why a lot of people scored highly in both rounds. Fewer competitors, and the high-scoring first round writers predominantly the ones staying on. If the full spread of ~30 writers did both rounds I think the overall scores would be lower, because demonstrably a good writer can have a bad judge (or a bad day) and get a 0, and then come back with a 15 the next time.


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SC R2: A Question Of Virtue (a/a)
SC R1: https://bit.ly/2UzqyIJ" rel="nofollow - A Knight Of Kernow (4th)
ShSC CH4: https://bit.ly/2StAbrt" rel="nofollow - Sport Of Queens (5th place)


Posted By: JeffreyHowe
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 11:13am
Originally posted by lisafox10800 lisafox10800 wrote:

If you look at the scoring, some groups had no one score a 1, 2, or even a 3 in some cases. Implying there were not enough participants to pick up these scores. 

Good eye! And if memory serves, last year someone did what you did with the 0/15 and actually advanced, so it's always worth a shot, IMHO.


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SC2019:
R1 H43 https://forums.nycmidnight.com/r1-h-43-tramps-romcom_topic21025.html" rel="nofollow - Tramps
R2 H12 Memories and Eggplant


Posted By: JeffreyHowe
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 11:21am
Originally posted by Snarkmaiden Snarkmaiden wrote:

I noticed that too, and that would mean that in some groups only 12 or 13 people were actually competing for the marks - which would explain why a lot of people scored highly in both rounds. Fewer competitors, and the high-scoring first round writers predominantly the ones staying on. If the full spread of ~30 writers did both rounds I think the overall scores would be lower, because demonstrably a good writer can have a bad judge (or a bad day) and get a 0, and then come back with a 15 the next time.

Although as Weebil noted above, it does seem as if a lot of people who advanced did well both times. Interesting if both hypotheses are true. Let me crunch some numbers...


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Posted By: Tim G
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 11:43am
Intriguing! Thanks for the mindfood Jeffrey and Lisa!

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CH1 Screenplay: https://bit.ly/2DwnSG0" rel="nofollow - Little Bird (Suspense)
CH2 Short Story: https://bit.ly/2OYERVY" rel="nofollow - The Sound Of Progress (Mystery)


Posted By: beckyrcollins
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 11:50am
I just feel bad for the carnage that is group 39. Three scorers with 17, only one went through -- even though their point distribution matched one of the other contestant's, 2-15, 15-2. Ouch.

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SWC R2 Clean Intentions (Thriller)
SWC R1 https://tinyurl.com/y3xh6lzg" rel="nofollow - Released (Ghost)


Posted By: JeffreyHowe
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 12:15pm
I can't post the chart, but the numbers for variability suggest advancing writers are on the whole less subject to large swings in scores.  First column is the magnitude (with +/- disregarded) of the change between rounds, the second and third columns are the percentage of writers with that magnitude of change.  57.5% of advancing writers had a change of 3 or less; only 39.6% of non-advancing writers did. Conversely, only 6.5% of advancing writers had a "swing" of 10 or more points between rounds, while 16.9% of non-advancing writers did.

I omitted all total scores of zero. Of the remainder, 200 writers advanced, 508 did not.

As to people dropping out boosting the second round scores--certainly the groups in round two where fewer than fifteen people came back are going to bump up averages a point or two. And it's possible, though not extremely likely, that one or two of the groups where 16s or 17s made the cut might have had a couple of people different people advancing, especially given the second round's primacy in tie-breaking criteria.

absolute delta did not advance advanced
0 3.74 8
1 10.83 17.5
2 12.01 17.5
3 12.99 14.5
4 10.04 8
5 7.28 9.5
6 9.45 8.5
7 6.50 2.5
8 5.71 7
9 4.53 0.5
10 4.13 3.5
11 3.54 1.5
12 2.95 0.5
13 3.74 1
14 1.97 0
15 0.59 0



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Posted By: BrianaNichol
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 12:16pm
Originally posted by beckyrcollins beckyrcollins wrote:

I just feel bad for the carnage that is group 39. Three scorers with 17, only one went through -- even though their point distribution matched one of the other contestant's, 2-15, 15-2. Ouch.

How did they choose the winner for that?


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SSC Ch1 12pts
https://tinyurl.com/y92e9wur" rel="nofollow - SSC Ch2 11pts
https://tinyurl.com/y98m83wf" rel="nofollow - SSC Ch3


Posted By: EmmaWoodhouse
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 12:16pm
Originally posted by lisafox10800 lisafox10800 wrote:

If you look at the scoring, some groups had no one score a 1, 2, or even a 3 in some cases. Implying there were not enough participants to pick up these scores. 

Uugghhh! This is just depressing. Having not made the top 15, I have no idea how well I did within my group, and knowing the above is sort of infuriating. 

Wondering if NYCM should come up with a more equitable scoring, for example, reverse the points and give everyone a score, and lowest totals advance. That way every entrant has a feel for how they placed. 


Posted By: EmmaWoodhouse
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 12:21pm
Originally posted by BrianaNichol BrianaNichol wrote:

Originally posted by beckyrcollins beckyrcollins wrote:

I just feel bad for the carnage that is group 39. Three scorers with 17, only one went through -- even though their point distribution matched one of the other contestant's, 2-15, 15-2. Ouch.

How did they choose the winner for that?

Ties were:
11 - 6
15 - 2
2  - 15

First they pick who scored the highest in any round, which eliminated the first guy, so:
15 - 2
2 - 15

As these two were "tied" with the exact same scores, the winner is the one who scored the highest in the second competition. 




Posted By: EmmaWoodhouse
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 12:22pm
Originally posted by JeffreyHowe JeffreyHowe wrote:

I can't post the chart, but the numbers for variability suggest advancing writers are on the whole less subject to large swings in scores.  First column is the magnitude (with +/- disregarded) of the change between rounds, the second and third columns are the percentage of writers with that magnitude of change.  57.5% of advancing writers had a change of 3 or less; only 39.6% of non-advancing writers did. Conversely, only 6.5% of advancing writers had a "swing" of 10 or more points between rounds, while 16.9% of non-advancing writers did.

I omitted all total scores of zero. Of the remainder, 200 writers advanced, 508 did not.

As to people dropping out boosting the second round scores--certainly the groups in round two where fewer than fifteen people came back are going to bump up averages a point or two. And it's possible, though not extremely likely, that one or two of the groups where 16s or 17s made the cut might have had a couple of people different people advancing, especially given the second round's primacy in tie-breaking criteria.

absolute delta did not advance advanced
0 3.74 8
1 10.83 17.5
2 12.01 17.5
3 12.99 14.5
4 10.04 8
5 7.28 9.5
6 9.45 8.5
7 6.50 2.5
8 5.71 7
9 4.53 0.5
10 4.13 3.5
11 3.54 1.5
12 2.95 0.5
13 3.74 1
14 1.97 0
15 0.59 0


JeffreyHowe - you rock! So cool that you did this. 


Posted By: BrianaNichol
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 12:26pm
Originally posted by EmmaWoodhouse EmmaWoodhouse wrote:

Originally posted by BrianaNichol BrianaNichol wrote:

Originally posted by beckyrcollins beckyrcollins wrote:

I just feel bad for the carnage that is group 39. Three scorers with 17, only one went through -- even though their point distribution matched one of the other contestant's, 2-15, 15-2. Ouch.

How did they choose the winner for that?

Ties were:
11 - 6
15 - 2
2  - 15

First they pick who scored the highest in any round, which eliminated the first guy, so:
15 - 2
2 - 15

As these two were "tied" with the exact same scores, the winner is the one who scored the highest in the second competition. 



Thanks Emma! I literally just found it in the rules! Wow, that has to be frustrating.


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SSC Ch1 12pts
https://tinyurl.com/y92e9wur" rel="nofollow - SSC Ch2 11pts
https://tinyurl.com/y98m83wf" rel="nofollow - SSC Ch3


Posted By: EmmaWoodhouse
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 12:36pm
Just another note - looking at all entrants, I see several names that have been around for awhile, and have scored in the top five consistently in the past, who didn't even make the top 15 this comp. Sort of makes you go "hmmmm"


Posted By: rcjeffrey
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 12:52pm

I’m one of the 15-2 writers that advanced. Is there a trophy for the Coast & Boast award? I’d like to thank the Academy voters for this honor...


No, but seriously, I have to admit that I actually did try in round 2, swear! But I deserved the 2-score. My feedback was strangely very positive, but I know where the serious flaws were. This has been so much fun this far. I’m happy to scrape by into the next round. Now I just have something to prove!



Posted By: JeffreyHowe
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 1:27pm
Originally posted by rcjeffrey rcjeffrey wrote:

I’m one of the 15-2 writers that advanced. Is there a trophy for the Coast & Boast award? I’d like to thank the Academy voters for this honor...


No, but seriously, I have to admit that I actually did try in round 2, swear! But I deserved the 2-score. My feedback was strangely very positive, but I know where the serious flaws were. This has been so much fun this far. I’m happy to scrape by into the next round. Now I just have something to prove!


What, survival isn't enough of a trophy? Big smile

Seriously, though, we're all tabula rosa the next round--which is part of the fun, at least for me.


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Posted By: JeffreyHowe
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 1:29pm
Originally posted by BrianaNichol BrianaNichol wrote:

Originally posted by EmmaWoodhouse EmmaWoodhouse wrote:

Originally posted by BrianaNichol BrianaNichol wrote:

Originally posted by beckyrcollins beckyrcollins wrote:

I just feel bad for the carnage that is group 39. Three scorers with 17, only one went through -- even though their point distribution matched one of the other contestant's, 2-15, 15-2. Ouch.

How did they choose the winner for that?

Ties were:
11 - 6
15 - 2
2  - 15

First they pick who scored the highest in any round, which eliminated the first guy, so:
15 - 2
2 - 15

As these two were "tied" with the exact same scores, the winner is the one who scored the highest in the second competition. 



Thanks Emma! I literally just found it in the rules! Wow, that has to be frustrating.

Imagine being at the bottom of this heap:
10-15
15-10
11-14
14-11
12-13
13-12


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R2 H12 Memories and Eggplant


Posted By: FMau
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 1:30pm
Originally posted by JeffreyHowe JeffreyHowe wrote:

Originally posted by lisafox10800 lisafox10800 wrote:

If you look at the scoring, some groups had no one score a 1, 2, or even a 3 in some cases. Implying there were not enough participants to pick up these scores. 

Good eye! And if memory serves, last year someone did what you did with the 0/15 and actually advanced, so it's always worth a shot, IMHO.

Wow, that's quite a thought. It means that, for example, the person who placed 5th in one of the groups got 8 points in round 1 and came 6th from last in round 2, so if their groupmates had submitted scripts, they could have scored anything between 0 and what they actually got.... Maths, huh? NYC might want to consider having 'extra', discretionary places for round 2, where some of the high-scorers who didn't get through - like the person with 22pts in group 23 - can get moved on from total score rather than placing within the group.
With 200 moving forward, they could have up to 10 extra places for contingencies, as that would give them 7 groups of 30 for round 2.
Just a thought. 


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Ch1 G34 https://tinyurl.com/yaanmn8r" rel="nofollow - Dream Spinners -3 pts
Ch2 G34 https://tinyurl.com/yc4z7hna" rel="nofollow - Sporty,Ginger,Delicia & Dick - 10pts


Posted By: beckyrcollins
Date Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 2:22pm
Originally posted by JeffreyHowe JeffreyHowe wrote:

Originally posted by BrianaNichol BrianaNichol wrote:

Originally posted by EmmaWoodhouse EmmaWoodhouse wrote:

Originally posted by BrianaNichol BrianaNichol wrote:

Originally posted by beckyrcollins beckyrcollins wrote:

I just feel bad for the carnage that is group 39. Three scorers with 17, only one went through -- even though their point distribution matched one of the other contestant's, 2-15, 15-2. Ouch.

How did they choose the winner for that?

Ties were:
11 - 6
15 - 2
2  - 15

First they pick who scored the highest in any round, which eliminated the first guy, so:
15 - 2
2 - 15

As these two were "tied" with the exact same scores, the winner is the one who scored the highest in the second competition. 



Thanks Emma! I literally just found it in the rules! Wow, that has to be frustrating.

Imagine being at the bottom of this heap:
10-15
15-10
11-14
14-11
12-13
13-12

Shocked has that happened?! Or do you just enjoy planting such scenarios in people's heads? Hahaha


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SWC R2 Clean Intentions (Thriller)
SWC R1 https://tinyurl.com/y3xh6lzg" rel="nofollow - Released (Ghost)



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