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Advancement odds based on 2017 results

Printed From: NYC Midnight : Creative Writing & Screenwriting
Category: GENERAL DISCUSSION
Forum Name: Creative Writing Corner
Forum Description: Discuss NYC Midnight Creative Writing Competitions or Creative Writing in general.
URL: https://forums.nycmidnight.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=18872
Printed Date: 03 Apr 2020 at 5:51am
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Topic: Advancement odds based on 2017 results
Posted By: Steve I
Subject: Advancement odds based on 2017 results
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 2:44pm
Got bored, its highly possible someone has already done this before!

< ="text/">
Writers with cumulative 15+ that didn't advance (note, nobody below 15 advanced) - 215
Highest Score to not advance - 21
ScoreFrequency
1583
1644
1735
1831
1915
206
211
< ="text/">
Writers who advanced - 400
Lowest score to advance - 15 (2)
ScoreFrequency
152
162
1721
1818
1937
2052
2144
2231
2347
2423
2533
2633
2718
2814
2915
3010


Odds of advancing based on scores:

< ="text/">
ScoreLiklihood of advancing
152.35%
164.35%
1737.50%
1836.73%
1971.15%
2089.66%
2197.78%
22100.00%
23100.00%
24100.00%
25100.00%
26100.00%
27100.00%
28100.00%
29100.00%
30100.00%


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Replies:
Posted By: ThePaleKing
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 2:56pm
Good skills - very interesting 

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Read my Round #1 story titled https://forums.nycmidnight.com/topic20690_post267733.html#267733" rel="nofollow - Words We Could Have Used


Posted By: Nic6879
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 2:58pm
This is fantastic! Thanks for your efforts creating this!! This is my first time doing the FFC, and it's really helpful to see in clear numbers.

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FCC18 Ch3 Gr15: https://bit.ly/2DDFQIj" rel="nofollow - Fool Me Once
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Ch1


Posted By: Log_Lady
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:03pm
Massive thanks for doing this! Now I have exact percentages to tie to my fears LOL. Seriously, I’m very grateful. 

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MF R1 G79 https://bit.ly/2OO3kOi" rel="nofollow - Milk's gone bad (Sci-fi)
MF R2 G8 https://bit.ly/34AG1yd" rel="nofollow - Prude in the nude (Comedy)


Posted By: Steve I
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:27pm
No problem, it was fun!

That said, those odds don't tell the full story of course.

Since we have first and second round scores, we can also look at what a first round score implies about your likely second round score. 

For example, among people who scored 15 in the first round, not only did 66 of 80 (82.5%) advance, but also based on last years results (s=80), getting a 15 in the first round indicated a 65% chance of scoring a 7 or better in round 2, totaling 22 or the threshold for guaranteed advancement (based on last years results).

 


Posted By: HR Garcia
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:33pm
So you're saying there's a chance.... ;)

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FF R1 http://bit.ly/2m6pRuL" rel="nofollow - The Finest French Lace - 0 points
FF R2 http://bit.ly/2m6pRuL" rel="nofollow - The Many Indiscretions of Agent 592 - 14 points


Posted By: Rainbowsockmonkey
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:36pm
Originally posted by Steve I Steve I wrote:

No problem, it was fun!

That said, those odds don't tell the full story of course.

Since we have first and second round scores, we can also look at what a first round score implies about your likely second round score. 

For example, among people who scored 15 in the first round, not only did 66 of 80 (82.5%) advance, but also based on last years results (s=80), getting a 15 in the first round indicated a 65% chance of scoring a 7 or better in round 2, totaling 22 or the threshold for guaranteed advancement (based on last years results).

 
 
ohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohplease  COME ON 7!


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Posted By: nod1v1ng
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:38pm
Originally posted by Rainbowsockmonkey Rainbowsockmonkey wrote:

 
ohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohplease  COME ON 7!

Me ^^^ exactly. C2 was a little out of my element....


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SSC1 https://bit.ly/312kPzX" rel="nofollow - A Pinterest Christmas


Posted By: AllyM84
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:41pm
Am I reading that right? No one that got less than 15 in the first round advanced to the second? 

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Allison
CH1: https://bit.ly/2JzbJAk" rel="nofollow - The Flight
CH2: https://bit.ly/2prXPZ8" rel="nofollow - A Dish Best Served Canned


Posted By: rossinny
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:43pm
I'm always a sucker for the numbers, thanks for doing this.

I think I worked out last year that it was possible to not advance with a score of 25 - although that is incredibly unlikely of course! Still though, scoring 20 or above and not advancing must really hurt.

And as a natural pessimist, I look at the 82.5% of 15 pointers who advanced and think, "crikey, 17.5% not advancing is actually quite high...."

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Posted By: Steve I
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:44pm
Originally posted by AllyM84 AllyM84 wrote:

Am I reading that right? No one that got less than 15 in the first round advanced to the second? 

Sorry, nobody with a less than 15 cumulative score from challenges 1 and 2 advanced to the next round!


Posted By: Zblugg
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:46pm
That's when you start running the numbers until they crystalize, then attempt a self-assessment of your piece, then try to gauge your odds, and end up a dry husk on the side of the road with unpaid bills.

Moral of the story: pay your bills and don't do crystal maths.


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SSC Finals - Secret Lairs
SSC3G6 - http://bit.ly/2OoPQJx" rel="nofollow - Wish


Posted By: nixie
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:50pm
If you search the forum for "all the scores" - the threads with the score spreadsheet have a lot of this from prior years.  Overall - it's pretty random, group to group (in one group someone with a score in the teens advances, in another it takes low 20s).  There's also - for one year - some digging as to whether folks who post on the forums are more likely to do well, etc.  Worth searching the old posts if you are interested in that sort of thing.  The All the Scores spreadsheet presently goes back 3 or 4 years...

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FFC Ch1: https://forums.nycmidnight.com/topic22540_post284621.html" rel="nofollow - Weep No Longer, Angel


Posted By: Cosima
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:55pm
Can you calculate a coefficient for the overall correlation between First and Second round scores? I'm curious. Thanks for doing this!!!

Stats can be fun -- who knew?


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SSC R1: Angie (Suspense) (1st)


Posted By: sootfoot5
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:59pm
and then you should know how they handle ties. 


In cases of ties, the writer with the highest placement in either of the challenges will advance. For example, if two writers are tied for 5th place with 16 points, with one writer placing 1st (15 points) and 15th (1 point) in the challenges and the other writer placing 8th (8 points) and 9th (7 points) in their corresponding challenges, the writer who placed 1st in one of the challenges will advance because of the higher placement. If a winner can still not be decided (i.e. both writers highest placement is the same), then the writer that places higher in Challenge #2 will advance. Points are not used beyond the 1st Round of the competition, and the placement and point totals of each writer in the 1st Round will have no bearing on future rounds.


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Posted By: catrad
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 5:39pm
Originally posted by AllyM84 AllyM84 wrote:

Am I reading that right? No one that got less than 15 in the first round advanced to the second? 


No, nobody than got less than 15 combined.  So if you got say a 12 in round one, you want at least a 4 in round two.  The higher the better.




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Micro https://tinyurl.com/y5dyehf4" rel="nofollow - Mordecai


Posted By: JingleBells
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:32pm
Great post thanks,  and thanks Sootfoot for all the additional info too. I love that you both crawled into my thoughts,  saw my musings and set out to clear the fog with fact and useful maths. Much appreciated! 
I got 14 in the first round,  which is a great start,  but I knew it was not enough on its own.  Here's hoping for a 4 or 5, but I seriously doubt my second effort is worth that much. 


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https://forums.nycmidnight.com/topic20924.html" rel="nofollow - Read R2 A DEADLY DESCENT


Posted By: TheDustyZebra
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:33pm
Originally posted by rossinny rossinny wrote:

 Still though, scoring 20 or above and not advancing must really hurt.
 

I can attest to that. I was a 20 last year that didn't advance. Cry


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2019MF R1G42 https://tinyurl.com/y5tpv254" rel="nofollow - Deliverance (Suspense/Thriller)


Posted By: TammyB
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:58pm
I have a better chance of winning the lottery than advancing (3 in round 1), but it’s worth it to try this. It might be what gets me writing to submit to contests instead of rewriting my little novel again. And again. And again.

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FF18CH1 BURIED IN LOVE
FF18CH2 DOG-GONE MICROCHIP
WRITE ON!


Posted By: myrhapsody
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 8:38pm
Originally posted by Zblugg Zblugg wrote:

That's when you start running the numbers until they crystalize, then attempt a self-assessment of your piece, then try to gauge your odds, and end up a dry husk on the side of the road with unpaid bills.

Moral of the story: pay your bills and don't do crystal maths.

ROFL! LOL


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Posted By: jennifer.quail
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 8:40pm
...You guys are all way better at maths than I am. 

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Posted By: Gudlyf
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 9:44pm
Speaking as a ZERO-pointer in round one...



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Posted By: LaraH
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 9:52pm
Originally posted by AllyM84 AllyM84 wrote:

Am I reading that right? No one that got less than 15 in the first round advanced to the second? 

no the 15 pts (well all of the numbers) is between the two challenges--meaning it is possible to get 15 on one and 0 on another and still move on.


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Posted By: WriterByNight
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 10:45pm
Originally posted by Steve I Steve I wrote:

Got bored, its highly possible someone has already done this before!

< ="text/">
Writers with cumulative 15+ that didn't advance (note, nobody below 15 advanced) - 215
Highest Score to not advance - 21
ScoreFrequency
1583
1644
1735
1831
1915
206
211
< ="text/">
Writers who advanced - 400
Lowest score to advance - 15 (2)
ScoreFrequency
152
162
1721
1818
1937
2052
2144
2231
2347
2423
2533
2633
2718
2814
2915
3010


Odds of advancing based on scores:

< ="text/">
ScoreLiklihood of advancing
152.35%
164.35%
1737.50%
1836.73%
1971.15%
2089.66%
2197.78%
22100.00%
23100.00%
24100.00%
25100.00%
26100.00%
27100.00%
28100.00%
29100.00%
30100.00%


Neat to see these stats! Thanks for doing this. 

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FFC 2019 R1 | The Smoke Jumper| 14 pts


Posted By: Lookit There
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 11:33pm
<rolling dice> C'mon 7!
Really, though, sometimes you can squeak in. One year I got a 0 followed by a 15, and missed going forward. But the advancing writer above me had a cumulative score of only 18, which seems somewhat low. So if the members of your heat have wildly varying scores, upsets can happen.


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SS 2020/Ch.1:
https://tinyurl.com/s36unf5" rel="nofollow - Dracularry


Posted By: sootfoot5
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 11:39pm
 remember someone who made it through with a zero.  Or was it a 3?  Now I'm not sure.  She did win the whole thing once and then quit participating.  Rachel Dunlop. London Girl we called her.  

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Posted By: MadEyeMary
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 1:15am
This makes me want to poop and laugh all at once. Pressure is on!! I have a feeling I'm in a heat with some legit ass people. Like too cool to post on the forums kind of people. O_O

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https://forums.nycmidnight.com/heat-125-south-of-the-river-historical-fiction_topic20109.html" rel="nofollow - SSC: South of the River


Posted By: AllyM84
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 7:56am
Originally posted by HR Garcia HR Garcia wrote:

So you're saying there's a chance.... ;)

bahahahahaha. Perfection. 


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Allison
CH1: https://bit.ly/2JzbJAk" rel="nofollow - The Flight
CH2: https://bit.ly/2prXPZ8" rel="nofollow - A Dish Best Served Canned


Posted By: AllyM84
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 7:57am
Originally posted by Gudlyf Gudlyf wrote:

Speaking as a ZERO-pointer in round one...


Omg, we can post Gifs here??? This changes EVERYTHING.

Also, A+ gif usage


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Allison
CH1: https://bit.ly/2JzbJAk" rel="nofollow - The Flight
CH2: https://bit.ly/2prXPZ8" rel="nofollow - A Dish Best Served Canned


Posted By: AllyM84
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 8:00am
Originally posted by catrad catrad wrote:

Originally posted by AllyM84 AllyM84 wrote:

Am I reading that right? No one that got less than 15 in the first round advanced to the second? 


No, nobody than got less than 15 combined.  So if you got say a 12 in round one, you want at least a 4 in round two.  The higher the better.



Gotcha. So, I need a 6 or higher....Hey, it could happen...





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Allison
CH1: https://bit.ly/2JzbJAk" rel="nofollow - The Flight
CH2: https://bit.ly/2prXPZ8" rel="nofollow - A Dish Best Served Canned


Posted By: Zblugg
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 8:07am
I'm in a weird situation. And I don't mean weird as in "oh this is so common, so... peon..."

Last year's Flash Fiction, I got 14 and 15 points. 29. Then I got an honorable mention (or discharge, if you will).

Then in Shorts Screenplay, I got 15 and 15, then an honorable mention. So I've never scored anything but very good, or not at all. 

That 8 point score leaves me in a MUCH MORE uncertain state, and I don't like it. I don't like it at all. What happened to the days where you could count on a lukewarm performace to go through? Now I have to hope that ROMANCE, of all things, will carry me through. 

Le sigh. 


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SSC Finals - Secret Lairs
SSC3G6 - http://bit.ly/2OoPQJx" rel="nofollow - Wish


Posted By: Tim G
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 9:14am
Originally posted by Zblugg Zblugg wrote:

Then I got an honorable mention (or discharge, if you will).


Le gag awesome


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Short Screenplay R3: https://bit.ly/2S1BlvY" rel="nofollow - Love Is In The Air (Romcom)


Posted By: Noel Alcoba
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 9:35am
Another interesting statistic to explore would be to see how many of the low-single digit (and zero) scorers IMPROVED to double digits in round 2 (underdogs who feel they need to prove something, with the added pressure of having to score MUCH higher to advance), compared to the double-digit scorers who ended up with single digits or zero in round 2 (feeling less pressure, or going in with the emotional confidence from a high score).

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Micro Ch1/Grp21 https://tinyurl.com/yx8mca2f" rel="nofollow - More Than You Know


Posted By: Schrifty
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 9:54am
Originally posted by Noel Alcoba Noel Alcoba wrote:

Another interesting statistic to explore would be to see how many of the low-single digit (and zero) scorers IMPROVED to double digits in round 2 (underdogs who feel they need to prove something, with the added pressure of having to score MUCH higher to advance), compared to the double-digit scorers who ended up with single digits or zero in round 2 (feeling less pressure, or going in with the emotional confidence from a high score).


I got a 0 (suspense) and a 13 (historical fiction) once.  It wasn't really that I felt I had something to prove (I had done well - and terribly - in past years), but sometimes the prompts just aren't in your favor, you know?  I tend to write speculative fiction genres when I'm not competing, so I feel like I have an advantage in Fantasy and SciFi.  My mystery genre stories went from a 0 to a 13 just because I learned so much by failing miserably the first time I got it.

I think the genre roulette and the crazy prompts really evens the playing field.  You can be an excellent writer and still get prompts you have no idea what to do with, and not enough time to come up with multiple ideas and rewrites to choose which one works best.  The key is not to psych yourself out one way or another based on how your other story did.


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MFC2019: https://shorturl.at/oyJX9" rel="nofollow - R2 G16: Second Chances (SciFi)


Posted By: Schrifty
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 10:03am
Originally posted by Zblugg Zblugg wrote:

I'm in a weird situation. And I don't mean weird as in "oh this is so common, so... peon..."

Last year's Flash Fiction, I got 14 and 15 points. 29. Then I got an honorable mention (or discharge, if you will).

Then in Shorts Screenplay, I got 15 and 15, then an honorable mention. So I've never scored anything but very good, or not at all. 

That 8 point score leaves me in a MUCH MORE uncertain state, and I don't like it. I don't like it at all. What happened to the days where you could count on a lukewarm performace to go through? Now I have to hope that ROMANCE, of all things, will carry me through. 

Le sigh. 


I wouldn't worry.  Honorable mentions are still in the top 5 or so, so if you got a nod from the judges you're still outperforming some of your group mates.  I say this as someone who really does score high or nothing at all.  My FFs have been 0, 0; 15, 13, (no HM), 0, 13; and 14 this round.

So yeah, I'm right there with you, either it comes out good or not.  I don't hate my last story, but I'm not super satisfied with it, and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes out with a 0 when compared to more slasher-type horror offerings.  It is what it is.



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MFC2019: https://cutt.ly/qeiQSvD" rel="nofollow - R1 G4: Cat Got Your Tongue (Fairy Tale) 2nd Place
MFC2019: https://shorturl.at/oyJX9" rel="nofollow - R2 G16: Second Chances (SciFi)


Posted By: nod1v1ng
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 10:15am
Originally posted by Schrifty Schrifty wrote:

I wouldn't worry.  Honorable mentions are still in the top 5 or so, so if you got a nod from the judges you're still outperforming some of your group mates.  

I find it's still a bit of an ouchie for poor suckers like me who have hit HM nearly every competition from Flash AND Short Story in the semifinals but have never yet made it to the finals. The first couple HM's felt ok (for the reason you mention). 

However, I'd almost rather wash gloriously. It stings a little to miss making the finals by the skin of your teeth! Again. Cry 



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SSC1 https://bit.ly/312kPzX" rel="nofollow - A Pinterest Christmas


Posted By: kizernix
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 10:25am
Has NYC-M ever considered publishing a Zine of their favorite stories?  You could have an issue featuring each category: Flash Fiction, Short Story, Etc. 

I would buy it! 


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SS1: https://forums.nycmidnight.com/r1-gr-9-the-jewelry-box-of-hildegard-von-dideritz_topic31911.html" rel="nofollow - The Jewelry Box of Hildegard von Dideritz


Posted By: lisafox10800
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 10:26am
Originally posted by Lookit There Lookit There wrote:

<rolling dice> C'mon 7!
Really, though, sometimes you can squeak in. One year I got a 0 followed by a 15, and missed going forward. But the advancing writer above me had a cumulative score of only 18, which seems somewhat low. So if the members of your heat have wildly varying scores, upsets can happen.

Me, too, last year. 0 + 15 combination and I missed advancing by three or four points. But you never know. Three people made it with this combo!


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https://forums.nycmidnight.com/ch1-gr20-exodus-of-the-arks_topic31863.html" rel="nofollow - 2020 Short Story Challenge 1 Action-Adventure


Posted By: lisafox10800
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 10:28am
Originally posted by kizernix kizernix wrote:

Has NYC-M ever considered publishing a Zine of their favorite stories?  You could have an issue featuring each category: Flash Fiction, Short Story, Etc. 

I would buy it! 

THAT would be awesome!


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https://forums.nycmidnight.com/ch1-gr20-exodus-of-the-arks_topic31863.html" rel="nofollow - 2020 Short Story Challenge 1 Action-Adventure


Posted By: LaraH
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 10:33am
Originally posted by Noel Alcoba Noel Alcoba wrote:

Another interesting statistic to explore would be to see how many of the low-single digit (and zero) scorers IMPROVED to double digits in round 2 (underdogs who feel they need to prove something, with the added pressure of having to score MUCH higher to advance), compared to the double-digit scorers who ended up with single digits or zero in round 2 (feeling less pressure, or going in with the emotional confidence from a high score).

The two times I did the FF my scores were 0/8 and 1/7.   This first round I got 7 which would seem promising, but I don’t think my story this round is as strong so I’ll possiibly reverse the trend and still end up with the same total score. 

I do wonder if people drop out between the first and second rounds —though that doesn’t seem like it would affect the scores since you’d think it would be those who scored 0 who dropped.



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https://tinyurl.com/ycxre9md" rel="nofollow - FF18 Ch 4- Scent of Blood and Pine


Posted By: lenka6
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 10:34am
Originally posted by MadEyeMary MadEyeMary wrote:

This makes me want to poop and laugh all at once. Pressure is on!! I have a feeling I'm in a heat with some legit ass people. Like too cool to post on the forums kind of people. O_O


Legit ass people?

If they don't post on the forums, how do you know their sexual preferences?

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R1
http://forums.nycmidnight.com/topic20158_post259314.html#259314" rel="nofollow - A Royal Mess


Posted By: td333777
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 10:38am
This is my fourth NYC Midnight contest (2 SSC, 2 FFC).  In each of the prior three, I definitely felt like the semi-final round (second story in SSC and third story in FFC) was the hardest round.  I still remember the sting from the first contest, 2017 SSC, where I drew Nod1v1ng’s favorite genre in the semi round and finished fifth and got HM (only the top four advanced.)  The competition level rises appreciably in the semis, as 85% of the writers get washed out by the first round.  Those that are left are stronger competition writers, and you generally have to be in the top 3 out of 25+, which is a tough order.  Hell, even the final round gives cash/prizes to a higher percentage of participants than the semi-final round.

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SSC 2018 - 2nd place
FFC 2017 - 1st


Posted By: Lord Xoon
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 10:40am
I still will never understand how anyone can get a 15 and a 0 in the same competition. Barring a DQ or just forget to submit a story.  It seems that if you have the capability to lead a group, there's no way you should ever drop out of the top 40% or so. I know it happens all the time and I'm sure it makes sense somehow, I just can't see it.

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Posted By: nod1v1ng
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 10:50am
Originally posted by Lord Xoon Lord Xoon wrote:

I still will never understand how anyone can get a 15 and a 0 in the same competition. Barring a DQ or just forget to submit a story.  It seems that if you have the capability to lead a group, there's no way you should ever drop out of the top 40% or so. I know it happens all the time and I'm sure it makes sense somehow, I just can't see it.


Easy. Some writers are not versatile and faced with a genre outside their comfort zone will bomb. 

Or you get a 15 for Challenge 1, get over confident, take a big risk - maybe a mash up, or a weird take on the prompts, or an experimental narrative style - and the new set of judges are less cool with that.

Not to mention life issues. I wrote my semi-final entry for my very first Flash contest in between scenes & costumes changes at a dress rehearsal for Tommy. What I turned in was barely coherent IMO.

There are tons of variables that could make that happen.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯



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Posted By: GGreen
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:33am
Originally posted by Lord Xoon Lord Xoon wrote:

I still will never understand how anyone can get a 15 and a 0 in the same competition. Barring a DQ or just forget to submit a story.  It seems that if you have the capability to lead a group, there's no way you should ever drop out of the top 40% or so. I know it happens all the time and I'm sure it makes sense somehow, I just can't see it.
I will let you know after I get the points for the second challenge! But if, as I fear, I bombed my second story, it will be because getting a 15 totally changed my mindset. I entered with a goal of forcing my arm to actually just write something, I had nothing to lose as long as I submitted Something. Getting a 15 genuinely took a while to process and I lost that mindset, it put so much pressure on. I still enjoyed coming up with something but it sort of made me think less clearly. Not saying I'm not thrilled with the 15 but it was hard to process. We shall see!


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Posted By: lisafox10800
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:38am
Originally posted by Lord Xoon Lord Xoon wrote:

I still will never understand how anyone can get a 15 and a 0 in the same competition. Barring a DQ or just forget to submit a story.  It seems that if you have the capability to lead a group, there's no way you should ever drop out of the top 40% or so. I know it happens all the time and I'm sure it makes sense somehow, I just can't see it.

Easy. 

Someone gets Political Satire or Comedy. The most subjective of the subjective from a judging point of view. 

Or ends up in a group where the judges seemed to want a story about androids... and the writer didn't write an android story! 

Or the writer went out on a limb and chose a topic that was particularly sensitive. Took more of a risk than others did. And bombed out as a result.

So many reasons this could happen...

My personal experience with this: My PolSat "0" story last year did well on the forums. But I "threw away" the object - really just included a dumb mention to check a box - and took a chance in writing a "fairy tale" fantasy. So I don't know if genre and object adherence killed me, or if the story just didn't resonate with the judges. 

Just like in the real world, where some great stories may be overlooked for publication for a variety of reasons, there's a strong likelihood that decent stories here can also be overlooked for scoring. In addition to writing chops and creativity, there is a degree of luck involved - as well as judges' personal biases and preferences. 

So, theoretically, should it happen? Probably not. Will it and does it? All the time. But in no way do I think scoring here is always a true reflection of a story's merit, or on the writer's capabilities. I've seen stories that scored at the top that have left me scratching my head, and others get no score that were tremendous. There are some amazing writers on this forum who have been saddled with a "0" in one round - even with a good solid story - who have come back to be recognized in the next. There's no rhyme or reason to it...  

Anywhere, just wanted to insert my two cents. From someone who has been on both sides of it. Smile


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Posted By: MrLipto
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:47am
Originally posted by lisafox10800 lisafox10800 wrote:


I've seen stories that scored at the top that have left me scratching my head, and others get no score that were tremendous. There are some amazing writers on this forum who have been saddled with a "0" in one round - even with a good solid story - who have come back to be recognized in the next. There's no rhyme or reason to it...  


Absolutely!

How did cosborne's "Hololife" not win the 2018 SSC? Baffling.


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Posted By: chrissie0707
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:47am
Originally posted by MrLipto MrLipto wrote:

Originally posted by lisafox10800 lisafox10800 wrote:


I've seen stories that scored at the top that have left me scratching my head, and others get no score that were tremendous. There are some amazing writers on this forum who have been saddled with a "0" in one round - even with a good solid story - who have come back to be recognized in the next. There's no rhyme or reason to it...  



Absolutely!

How did cosborne's "Hololife" not win the 2018 SSC? Baffling.


Oh, I had that one pegged in my head as the winner, too.

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Micro#1 - One More Day 6th
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Posted By: Steve I
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:48am
Yeah, Im a bit nervous about a 15-0 happening to me too? Really hard to know and people ive talked to seem to like my 2nd story, but im a little worried the judges will find it sort of thin, that i pushed the location too far, and that I barely used the object. it is SO hard to know!

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Posted By: jennifer.quail
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:53am
Originally posted by lisafox10800 lisafox10800 wrote:

Originally posted by Lord Xoon Lord Xoon wrote:

I still will never understand how anyone can get a 15 and a 0 in the same competition. Barring a DQ or just forget to submit a story.  It seems that if you have the capability to lead a group, there's no way you should ever drop out of the top 40% or so. I know it happens all the time and I'm sure it makes sense somehow, I just can't see it.

Easy. 

Someone gets Political Satire or Comedy. The most subjective of the subjective from a judging point of view. 

Or ends up in a group where the judges seemed to want a story about androids... and the writer didn't write an android story! 

Or the writer went out on a limb and chose a topic that was particularly sensitive. Took more of a risk than others did. And bombed out as a result.

So many reasons this could happen...

*nods* She's right you know.

PoliSat and comedy in particular are incredibly subjective. With the former it's borderline-impossible to remove bias as a reader. So someone could write a well-constructed satire, but run into judges who just loathe their perspective (looking at the judges' backgrounds I can see anyone who didn't toe very closely to a politically-correct narrative would likely get slammed hard for not conforming no matter how objectively good their writing was.) 

Comedy, meanwhile, is both hard to do at all and it's very subject to personal taste. I love black comedy, like so dark Anish Kapoor has exclusive license to paint with it. Some people are not into super-dark humor. A judge who didn't like black humor or slapstick or whatever the writer chose might judge more harshly, and unlike polisat it's probably not even a conscious thing, it's just what they find funny and the writer finds funny are poles apart.


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Posted By: Lord Xoon
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:57am
Originally posted by jennifer.quail jennifer.quail wrote:

Originally posted by lisafox10800 lisafox10800 wrote:

Originally posted by Lord Xoon Lord Xoon wrote:

I still will never understand how anyone can get a 15 and a 0 in the same competition. Barring a DQ or just forget to submit a story.  It seems that if you have the capability to lead a group, there's no way you should ever drop out of the top 40% or so. I know it happens all the time and I'm sure it makes sense somehow, I just can't see it.

Easy. 

Someone gets Political Satire or Comedy. The most subjective of the subjective from a judging point of view. 

Or ends up in a group where the judges seemed to want a story about androids... and the writer didn't write an android story! 

Or the writer went out on a limb and chose a topic that was particularly sensitive. Took more of a risk than others did. And bombed out as a result.

So many reasons this could happen...

*nods* She's right you know.

PoliSat and comedy in particular are incredibly subjective. With the former it's borderline-impossible to remove bias as a reader. So someone could write a well-constructed satire, but run into judges who just loathe their perspective (looking at the judges' backgrounds I can see anyone who didn't toe very closely to a politically-correct narrative would likely get slammed hard for not conforming no matter how objectively good their writing was.) 


I see that, but I think you can probably play the odds with a liberal arts based competition that the judges will lean "left" and you can sort of cheat things that way. Not a sure thing, but it's probably pretty safe.

But yeah, I guess I've never had to tackle drama or RomCom, so I might be in for a rude awakening when that day comes.


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https://forums.nycmidnight.com/topic32294_post333852.html#333852" rel="nofollow - R1 The Surrogate Date


Posted By: Nic6879
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 12:11pm
Originally posted by GGreen GGreen wrote:

Originally posted by Lord Xoon Lord Xoon wrote:

I still will never understand how anyone can get a 15 and a 0 in the same competition. Barring a DQ or just forget to submit a story.  It seems that if you have the capability to lead a group, there's no way you should ever drop out of the top 40% or so. I know it happens all the time and I'm sure it makes sense somehow, I just can't see it.
I will let you know after I get the points for the second challenge! But if, as I fear, I bombed my second story, it will be because getting a 15 totally changed my mindset. I entered with a goal of forcing my arm to actually just write something, I had nothing to lose as long as I submitted Something. Getting a 15 genuinely took a while to process and I lost that mindset, it put so much pressure on. I still enjoyed coming up with something but it sort of made me think less clearly. Not saying I'm not thrilled with the 15 but it was hard to process. We shall see!
 
Same, GGreen! 15 pts in the first round, total shocker, and the pressure I put on myself just sky-rocketed. No overconfidence here because of the score - rather the opposite.


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Ch1


Posted By: sootfoot5
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 12:45pm
the other thing about scoring a 15 in the first round and a zero in the next is that you can’t horget this is kinda graded on the curve. So maybe you wrotethe hottest rom com the first round, but not only do you not have a clue about sci fi? But half the people in your group speak fluent Klingon and are experts st world building. 

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Posted By: MadEyeMary
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 1:41pm
Originally posted by lenka6 lenka6 wrote:

Originally posted by MadEyeMary MadEyeMary wrote:

This makes me want to poop and laugh all at once. Pressure is on!! I have a feeling I'm in a heat with some legit ass people. Like too cool to post on the forums kind of people. O_O


Legit ass people?

If they don't post on the forums, how do you know their sexual preferences?

Damnit! I knew as soon as I posted it that one of you fanatics would see my hyphen omission and make a pun!!

Way to be first. 


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Posted By: Noel Alcoba
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 1:45pm
Originally posted by sootfoot5 sootfoot5 wrote:

the other thing about scoring a 15 in the first round and a zero in the next is that you can’t horget this is kinda graded on the curve. So maybe you wrotethe hottest rom com the first round, but not only do you not have a clue about sci fi? But half the people in your group speak fluent Klingon and are experts st world building. 

True.

I'm a literary minority here in the sense that I actually LOVE writing political satire (even before things turned into the circus it is now).  I made political cartoons for years and had an anonymous political blog too.  So when I got ghost story for the last round, my immediate thought was "hmmm, how about a ghost getting elected mayor? HILARITY ENSUES!"  But it was like getting homework in a foreign language.  I wrote something where the chronology jumped around, since I'm used to political satire, which doesn't always follow a straight line.

Nonetheless it was fun to expand out of my comfort zone.  I got suspense this time.  Still not my genre, but writing what I'm not used to is a very enriching experience.


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Posted By: nod1v1ng
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 1:48pm
Originally posted by Noel Alcoba Noel Alcoba wrote:

So when I got ghost story for the last round, my immediate thought was "hmmm, how about a ghost getting elected mayor? HILARITY ENSUES!"  

I am somewhat disappointed that you didn't go that route. OMG.  LOLLOLLOLLOL


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Posted By: Noel Alcoba
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 2:14pm
Originally posted by nod1v1ng nod1v1ng wrote:

Originally posted by Noel Alcoba Noel Alcoba wrote:

So when I got ghost story for the last round, my immediate thought was "hmmm, how about a ghost getting elected mayor? HILARITY ENSUES!"  

I am somewhat disappointed that you didn't go that route. OMG.  LOLLOLLOLLOL

Come to think of it...YOU'RE RIGHT!

Or, maybe something along the lines of a gubernatorial hopeful stuffing ballot boxes with the names of dead people.  Until those same voters visit him to show their disapproval! (dun dun dunnnnnn!)

...oh, takes place in a tool shed LOL


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Posted By: nod1v1ng
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 2:16pm
Originally posted by Noel Alcoba Noel Alcoba wrote:

Or, maybe something along the lines of a gubernatorial hopeful stuffing ballot boxes with the names of dead people.  Until those same voters visit him to show their disapproval! (dun dun dunnnnnn!)

...oh, takes place in a tool shed LOL

well, the toolshed could have been re-purposed as a voting booth.. small town politics, you know...


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Posted By: Noel Alcoba
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 2:20pm
Originally posted by nod1v1ng nod1v1ng wrote:

Originally posted by Noel Alcoba Noel Alcoba wrote:

Or, maybe something along the lines of a gubernatorial hopeful stuffing ballot boxes with the names of dead people.  Until those same voters visit him to show their disapproval! (dun dun dunnnnnn!)

...oh, takes place in a tool shed LOL

well, the toolshed could have been re-purposed as a voting booth.. small town politics, you know...

I will gladly collaborate with you in the future on a political-satire / ghost story mash-up!

look out folks!


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Posted By: WriterByNight
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 2:44pm
Originally posted by Lord Xoon Lord Xoon wrote:

I still will never understand how anyone can get a 15 and a 0 in the same competition. Barring a DQ or just forget to submit a story.  It seems that if you have the capability to lead a group, there's no way you should ever drop out of the top 40% or so. I know it happens all the time and I'm sure it makes sense somehow, I just can't see it.

Don’t forget life happens. During the SSC one year, my husband was in town for the first two rounds and deployed during the 24 hour round. I was holding down the fort with two-year-old twins and a four-year-old. Still managed to submit and earn an HM, but it was my worst story of any of the NYCM contests. 

Sometimes good stories get left behind for whatever reason. Also, the judges have their own tastes and different writers have different strengths. Sometimes people luck out with prompts and sometimes there’s just no faking it. 

For me, it’s a juggling kids thing. I’ll always try and submit something but I won’t let it interfere with home life. One year I was at a wedding for round two and didn’t submit because this is a fun hobby, but my rule is family first. 


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FFC 2019 R1 | The Smoke Jumper| 14 pts


Posted By: Noel Alcoba
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 3:07pm
Originally posted by WriterByNight WriterByNight wrote:


Don’t forget life happens. During the SSC one year, my husband was in town for the first two rounds and deployed during the 24 hour round. I was holding down the fort with two-year-old twins and a four-year-old. Still managed to submit and earn an HM, but it was my worst story of any of the NYCM contests. 

Sometimes good stories get left behind for whatever reason. Also, the judges have their own tastes and different writers have different strengths. Sometimes people luck out with prompts and sometimes there’s just no faking it. 

For me, it’s a juggling kids thing. I’ll always try and submit something but I won’t let it interfere with home life. One year I was at a wedding for round two and didn’t submit because this is a fun hobby, but my rule is family first. 

YES.  Life does happen.  Ideally we'd all be sequestered somewhere with bottomless coffee, a view of the water, and zero interruptions.  Personally, I write best on weekdays, early in the morning.  Weekends are kind of a struggle because there's so much going on at home--instead of writing becoming THE main thing, it becomes one of many errands. Instead of a continuous, butt-in-seat write-a-thon, you get sporadic free periods of varying lengths.  Five minutes here, twenty minutes there.  Write when you can, kind of thing. And cold-starting is the mortal enemy of writing-momentum.

Add the subjectivity and randomness of judges (and whatever THEIR day looks like) and the score really can be a gamble.

Then again, if you're writing's crap, it's crap.


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Posted By: lisafox10800
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 3:11pm
Originally posted by sootfoot5 sootfoot5 wrote:

the other thing about scoring a 15 in the first round and a zero in the next is that you can’t horget this is kinda graded on the curve. So maybe you wrotethe hottest rom com the first round, but not only do you not have a clue about sci fi? But half the people in your group speak fluent Klingon and are experts st world building. 

I honestly think THIS is the most important consideration in scoring, and why it is entirely possible to get a 15-0 combination.

Some genres naturally lend themselves to being crapshoots more than others, but at the root of it all is this.


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https://forums.nycmidnight.com/ch1-gr20-exodus-of-the-arks_topic31863.html" rel="nofollow - 2020 Short Story Challenge 1 Action-Adventure


Posted By: nixie
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 5:13pm
Originally posted by lisafox10800 lisafox10800 wrote:

Originally posted by sootfoot5 sootfoot5 wrote:

the other thing about scoring a 15 in the first round and a zero in the next is that you can’t horget this is kinda graded on the curve. So maybe you wrotethe hottest rom com the first round, but not only do you not have a clue about sci fi? But half the people in your group speak fluent Klingon and are experts st world building. 

I honestly think THIS is the most important consideration in scoring, and why it is entirely possible to get a 15-0 combination.

Some genres naturally lend themselves to being crapshoots more than others, but at the root of it all is this.

Can't agree about 'some genres' - really has a lot to do with how comfortable that individual writer is.  If you look at  the inevitable recurring 'what genre are you dreading' threads that somehow turn up every first round, the answers are always across the board (with a skew for pol sat lol). So to me, less about the genre itself than about how comfortable the writers in your group are with it.  but the core thing there is that NYCM is graded on a curve. there is no absolute scale - it changes with every group combination.  That's how in a single year we end up with one group where - what was it, as 12? moved forward? and the group next door it was 21 or 22 to move forward?  That's what it looks like when it grades on a curve.


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FFC Ch1: https://forums.nycmidnight.com/topic22540_post284621.html" rel="nofollow - Weep No Longer, Angel


Posted By: td333777
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 5:52pm
I also think it’s much easier to advance if you get a double-digit score in round one, because I believe at least 3-4 people per heat drop out if they get zero points.  That means you’re competing with fewer people in challenge two of the first round, which increases your odds of being in the top 15 and scoring enough points to move on.

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https://forums.nycmidnight.com/topic32090_post331061.html#331061" rel="nofollow - SSC 2020 - R1 G74 All Good Calamari Wizards Drive Escalades
SSC 2018 - 2nd place
FFC 2017 - 1st


Posted By: HR Garcia
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 5:57pm
Originally posted by td333777 td333777 wrote:

I also think it’s much easier to advance if you get a double-digit score in round one, because I believe at least 3-4 people per heat drop out if they get zero points.  That means you’re competing with fewer people in challenge two of the first round, which increases your odds of being in the top 15 and scoring enough points to move on.

Ooh, I wish there was a way for us to know how many were still in our groups. Then again, that would just increase the speculation madness, so maybe it's best we don't know.


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FF R1 http://bit.ly/2m6pRuL" rel="nofollow - The Finest French Lace - 0 points
FF R2 http://bit.ly/2m6pRuL" rel="nofollow - The Many Indiscretions of Agent 592 - 14 points


Posted By: nixie
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 6:40pm
Originally posted by td333777 td333777 wrote:

I also think it’s much easier to advance if you get a double-digit score in round one, because I believe at least 3-4 people per heat drop out if they get zero points.  That means you’re competing with fewer people in challenge two of the first round, which increases your odds of being in the top 15 and scoring enough points to move on.

Or it decreases them - since the people who scored *high (the tough competition that you actually have to beat) aren't generally the ones who huff off.... :)


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FFC Ch1: https://forums.nycmidnight.com/topic22540_post284621.html" rel="nofollow - Weep No Longer, Angel


Posted By: Steve I
Date Posted: 12 Sep 2019 at 12:53pm
bumping for the stats analysis on pg. 1! Helps me realize I am targeting a 7 or higher to feel even slightly comfortable.

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C3: https://tinyurl.com/v9shyr5" rel="nofollow - I'm Fallen and I Can't Get Down
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Posted By: amlewi08
Date Posted: 12 Sep 2019 at 12:56pm
If that analysis just isn’t the sexiest thing I’ve ever seen.

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https://forums.nycmidnight.com/ffch-3-g16-just-like-tripoli_topic30669.html" rel="nofollow - FFC 19, Ch3 Just Like Tripoli



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