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RadBadOrJustSad View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RadBadOrJustSad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Points to advance?
    Posted: 11 Jul 2021 at 11:29pm
If I understand the rules for Flash properly, 1st place in the first two rounds is worth 15 points each, 2nd place 14, etc. Scores are combined and top 5 in each group  progress. Works out that only about 15% of each group are going to make it past the second story.

But I was wondering if anecdotally anyone had insight on how many points you should expect it takes to fall into that 15%? The max (1st place both rounds) being 30 points is unlikely I'm sure, but if you got 1st in one round and didnt place in the other, are you possibly still safe?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nikolaki Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jul 2021 at 11:32pm
It isn’t helpful but it really does depend on the group. You could theoretically get no points or just 1 or 2 in round one, place high in the second, and theres low turnout in your group for the second and bam you move on. I only did it once but if I remember correctly I feel like my group had like 20-22 for the people moving on. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RadBadOrJustSad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jul 2021 at 12:07am
I think that ~20 range was about what I expected to hear. Presumably anyone placing in the top 5 in the first round make up generally strong writers, so you wouldn't expect them to drop off to unranked in the second.

I'd guess broadly that 16 is pretty much the floor to get through to round three, if I was to handicap my own question.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NERdling Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jul 2021 at 12:31am
Last year, my group was Pol Sat round 1 and Horror round 2, both are tough genres for the majority of people, and some who did well in one did not do well in the other (I think one of the top scores in r1 got a bottom score in r2 and the top score in r2 diddn't place in r1). 

I scored 8 points in round 1 and 7 points in round 2 and ended up squeaking by in 5th with 15 points. I knew that was suuuppper odd and went and checked the lowest for each group (because I love numbers and am a nerd) and there were 2 or 3 groups where the 5th place spot had 15 points. Average for the 5th spot looked to be around 18-20, and there were a few groups where all 5 spots had 22+ points
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kristina_f Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jul 2021 at 12:57am
The lowest score you could go through with is a 13. I think the highest score you can get cut off with is 25. So on the extremes, if you get a 12 or under total or a 26 and over total, you know your fate.

I've seen results from years past somewhere, and I am pretty sure people did go through with 15s, 16s, and 17s. But I think 18 and up was a more common 5th place score.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ajens Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jul 2021 at 12:07pm
Here's for 2018 results - I am sure it varies some from year to year especially based on the number of participants.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RadBadOrJustSad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jul 2021 at 12:18pm
You're not the hero I deserve, but the hero I need. Thank you, that's amazing info to have. 

I'd give... well, not much but I'd love the chance... to pick the brain of the person who got a 23 but didnt advance and get their unvarnished thoughts about the four 15s who did.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pondsandfrogs Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jul 2021 at 12:53pm
Originally posted by ajens ajens wrote:

Here's for 2018 results - I am sure it varies some from year to year especially based on the number of participants.


Ooh, thank you for sharing this! Helpful to know, totally.

Another link if you're interested, RadBadOrJustSad (love that name), http://www.nycmidnight.com/Competitions/FFC/1stRound2020_Ch2results.htm -- these are the results from last year's Flash contest after 2 rounds, if you want to see the hard numbers. I didn't advance in Flash, but when I saw my name highlighted in yellow for the Short Screenplay 2020 contest after 2 rounds, I was overjoyed. And I only scored 18 after two challenges, so I suppose I was kind of an outlier if 2018's numbers are generally about the same year-after-year.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (4) Thanks(4)   Quote ajens Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jul 2021 at 1:13pm
Just for fun here is a quick summary of odds from 2019 as well:

Odds of Advancing based on combined score from Rounds 1 & 2 

Odds Based on Number of people with same score
12 (1 of 105): 1%
13 (0 of 94) 0%
14 (0 of 96) 0%
15 (9 of 129): 7%
16 (14 of 64): 22%
17 (19 of 67): 28%
18 (31 of 81): 38%
19 (39 of 68): 57%
20 (55 of 67): 82%
21 (73 of 79): 92%
22 (52 of 56): 93 %
23 (67 of 67): 100%
24 (58 of 58): 100%
25 (57 of 57): 100%
26 (43 of 43): 100%
27 (47 of 47): 100%
28 (25 of 25): 100%:
29 (21 of 21): 100%
30 (14 of 14): 100%

Interesting Notes:
Highest Total Score not advancing 22 (4 people)
29 people scored a 14 in round 1 and did not advance
22 people scored a 15 in round 1 and did not advance

1st Round Scores of People who went on to advance to round 3 & percent of people with that score advancing
0 (5)  4% *this seems like a fluke*
1 (1) .8%
2 (1) .8%
3 (2) 1.6%
4 (6)  4.8%
5 (16) 12.8%
6 (15) 12%
7 (27) 21.6%
8 (27) 21.6%
9 (43) 34.4%
10 (53) 42.4%
11 (63) 50.4%
12 (80) 64%
13 (86) 68.8%
14 (96) 76.8%
15 (103) 82.4 %

Also as an interesting side note-  of the people who scored a 10 or more in Round 1, 45% scored at least a 10 in round 2 as well (336 of 750).   



Edited by ajens - 12 Jul 2021 at 1:56pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote ajens Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jul 2021 at 1:51pm
And Here is 2020

Odds of Advancing based on combined score from Rounds 1 & 2 

Odds Based on Number of people with same score
-no scores advancing lower than 15
15 (8 of 100): 8%
16 (13 of 64): 20%
17 (17 of 65): 26%
18 (36 of 76): 47%
19 (43 of 69): 62%
20 (65 of 75): 87%
21 (61 of 62): 98%
22 (52 of 56): 93%
23 (56 of 56): 100%
24 (53 of 54): 98%* 
25 (54 of 54): 100%
26 (50 of 50): 100%
27 (40 of 40): 100%
28 (19 of 19): 100%:
29 (27 of 27): 100%
30 (19 of 19): 100%

Interesting Notes:
*Highest Total Score not advancing 24 (1 person - basically everyone in their group who was in the top 5 for Round 1 was also top 5 round 2)
36 people scored a 14 in round 1 and did not advance
14 people scored a 15 in round 1 and did not advance

1st Round Scores of People who went on to advance to round 3 & percent of people with that score advancing
0 (1)  .8%
1 (0) 0%
2 (2) 1.6%
3 (5) 4%
4 (5)  4%
5 (7) 5.6%
6 (17) 13.6%
7 (30) 24%
8 (36) 28.8%
9 (49) 39.2%
10 (62) 49.6%
11 (69) 55.2%
12 (63) 50.4%
13 (79) 63.2%
14 (89) 71.2%
15 (111)  88.8%

Also as an interesting side note-  of the people who scored a 10 or more in Round 1, 42% scored at least a 10 in round 2 as well (314 of 750).  18.8% of the group who scored 10 or more in round 1 didn't get a score for round 2 (149 of 750) but of these 4 still advanced to round 3.

While completely unrelated to the scores it's interesting to note where everyone is coming from (2020 as listed on results)
69.6% United States
9.6% Canada
7.1% Australia
6.3% United Kingdom
2.7% Great Britain
1.2% New Zealand
1.2% Ireland
2.3 % Other 


Edited by ajens - 12 Jul 2021 at 2:23pm
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