NYC Midnight : Creative Writing & Screenwriting Homepage
Forum Home Forum Home > GENERAL DISCUSSION > Creative Writing Corner
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Advancement odds based on 2017 results
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Advancement odds based on 2017 results

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1234 7>
Author
Message
Steve I View Drop Down
NYC Midnight Regular
NYC Midnight Regular
Avatar

Joined: 15 Jul 2018
Location: NYC
Status: Offline
Points: 394
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Steve I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:44pm
Originally posted by AllyM84 AllyM84 wrote:

Am I reading that right? No one that got less than 15 in the first round advanced to the second? 

Sorry, nobody with a less than 15 cumulative score from challenges 1 and 2 advanced to the next round!
Back to Top
Zblugg View Drop Down
NYC Midnight Black Belt
NYC Midnight Black Belt
Avatar

Joined: 25 Apr 2017
Location: Cantley, Canada
Status: Offline
Points: 4256
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (10) Thanks(10)   Quote Zblugg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:46pm
That's when you start running the numbers until they crystalize, then attempt a self-assessment of your piece, then try to gauge your odds, and end up a dry husk on the side of the road with unpaid bills.

Moral of the story: pay your bills and don't do crystal maths.
Back to Top
nixie View Drop Down
NYC Midnight Black Belt
NYC Midnight Black Belt
Avatar

Joined: 01 Aug 2015
Location: Seattle, WA
Status: Offline
Points: 9048
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote nixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:50pm
If you search the forum for "all the scores" - the threads with the score spreadsheet have a lot of this from prior years.  Overall - it's pretty random, group to group (in one group someone with a score in the teens advances, in another it takes low 20s).  There's also - for one year - some digging as to whether folks who post on the forums are more likely to do well, etc.  Worth searching the old posts if you are interested in that sort of thing.  The All the Scores spreadsheet presently goes back 3 or 4 years...
Back to Top
Cosima View Drop Down
NYC Midnight Addict
NYC Midnight Addict
Avatar

Joined: 13 Jul 2018
Location: California
Status: Offline
Points: 638
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cosima Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:55pm
Can you calculate a coefficient for the overall correlation between First and Second round scores? I'm curious. Thanks for doing this!!!

Stats can be fun -- who knew?
SSC 2021 R2: Complex Fracture
SSC 2021 R1: Before Her Time 2nd
Back to Top
sootfoot5 View Drop Down
NYC Midnight Black Belt
NYC Midnight Black Belt
Avatar

Joined: 04 Apr 2008
Location: outer space man
Status: Offline
Points: 6638
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sootfoot5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:59pm
and then you should know how they handle ties. 


In cases of ties, the writer with the highest placement in either of the challenges will advance. For example, if two writers are tied for 5th place with 16 points, with one writer placing 1st (15 points) and 15th (1 point) in the challenges and the other writer placing 8th (8 points) and 9th (7 points) in their corresponding challenges, the writer who placed 1st in one of the challenges will advance because of the higher placement. If a winner can still not be decided (i.e. both writers highest placement is the same), then the writer that places higher in Challenge #2 will advance. Points are not used beyond the 1st Round of the competition, and the placement and point totals of each writer in the 1st Round will have no bearing on future rounds.
Back to Top
catrad View Drop Down
NYC Midnight Black Belt
NYC Midnight Black Belt
Avatar

Joined: 27 Jul 2016
Location: Argyle Ny
Status: Offline
Points: 1638
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote catrad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 5:39pm
Originally posted by AllyM84 AllyM84 wrote:

Am I reading that right? No one that got less than 15 in the first round advanced to the second? 


No, nobody than got less than 15 combined.  So if you got say a 12 in round one, you want at least a 4 in round two.  The higher the better.




Edited by catrad - 18 Sep 2018 at 5:58pm
Back to Top
JingleBells View Drop Down
NYC Midnight Addict
NYC Midnight Addict
Avatar

Joined: 04 Feb 2018
Location: Adelaide
Status: Offline
Points: 909
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JingleBells Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:32pm
Great post thanks,  and thanks Sootfoot for all the additional info too. I love that you both crawled into my thoughts,  saw my musings and set out to clear the fog with fact and useful maths. Much appreciated! 
I got 14 in the first round,  which is a great start,  but I knew it was not enough on its own.  Here's hoping for a 4 or 5, but I seriously doubt my second effort is worth that much. 
Back to Top
TheDustyZebra View Drop Down
NYC Midnight Black Belt
NYC Midnight Black Belt
Avatar

Joined: 22 Jan 2017
Location: Colorado
Status: Offline
Points: 1709
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote TheDustyZebra Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:33pm
Originally posted by rossinny rossinny wrote:

 Still though, scoring 20 or above and not advancing must really hurt.
 

I can attest to that. I was a 20 last year that didn't advance. Cry
100MF2022 R1 G41 The Ties that Bind (Romance)
Back to Top
TammyB View Drop Down
NYC Midnight Addict
NYC Midnight Addict
Avatar

Joined: 13 Jul 2018
Location: virginia
Status: Offline
Points: 696
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TammyB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:58pm
I have a better chance of winning the lottery than advancing (3 in round 1), but it’s worth it to try this. It might be what gets me writing to submit to contests instead of rewriting my little novel again. And again. And again.
FF19CH1 A Collector’s Obsession
FF18CH1 BURIED IN LOVE
FF18CH2 DOG-GONE MICROCHIP
WRITE ON!
Back to Top
myrhapsody View Drop Down
NYC Midnight Black Belt
NYC Midnight Black Belt
Avatar

Joined: 16 Jul 2018
Location: Chicago
Status: Offline
Points: 3389
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote myrhapsody Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 8:38pm
Originally posted by Zblugg Zblugg wrote:

That's when you start running the numbers until they crystalize, then attempt a self-assessment of your piece, then try to gauge your odds, and end up a dry husk on the side of the road with unpaid bills.

Moral of the story: pay your bills and don't do crystal maths.

ROFL! LOL
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1234 7>

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Forum Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 12.05
Copyright ©2001-2022 Web Wiz Ltd.

This page was generated in 0.234 seconds.