Advancement odds based on 2017 results |
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Steve I
NYC Midnight Regular Joined: 15 Jul 2018 Location: NYC Status: Offline Points: 394 |
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Sorry, nobody with a less than 15 cumulative score from challenges 1 and 2 advanced to the next round!
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Zblugg
NYC Midnight Black Belt Joined: 25 Apr 2017 Location: Cantley, Canada Status: Offline Points: 4256 |
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That's when you start running the numbers until they crystalize, then attempt a self-assessment of your piece, then try to gauge your odds, and end up a dry husk on the side of the road with unpaid bills.
Moral of the story: pay your bills and don't do crystal maths.
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MF100 R2G16 Marv and Mary Have Flower Issues
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nixie
NYC Midnight Black Belt Joined: 01 Aug 2015 Location: Seattle, WA Status: Offline Points: 9048 |
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If you search the forum for "all the scores" - the threads with the score spreadsheet have a lot of this from prior years. Overall - it's pretty random, group to group (in one group someone with a score in the teens advances, in another it takes low 20s). There's also - for one year - some digging as to whether folks who post on the forums are more likely to do well, etc. Worth searching the old posts if you are interested in that sort of thing. The All the Scores spreadsheet presently goes back 3 or 4 years...
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Cosima
NYC Midnight Addict Joined: 13 Jul 2018 Location: California Status: Offline Points: 638 |
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Can you calculate a coefficient for the overall correlation between First and Second round scores? I'm curious. Thanks for doing this!!!
Stats can be fun -- who knew?
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sootfoot5
NYC Midnight Black Belt Joined: 04 Apr 2008 Location: outer space man Status: Offline Points: 6638 |
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and then you should know how they handle ties.
In cases of ties, the writer with the highest placement in either of the challenges will advance. For example, if two writers are tied for 5th place with 16 points, with one writer placing 1st (15 points) and 15th (1 point) in the challenges and the other writer placing 8th (8 points) and 9th (7 points) in their corresponding challenges, the writer who placed 1st in one of the challenges will advance because of the higher placement. If a winner can still not be decided (i.e. both writers highest placement is the same), then the writer that places higher in Challenge #2 will advance. Points are not used beyond the 1st Round of the competition, and the placement and point totals of each writer in the 1st Round will have no bearing on future rounds.
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catrad
NYC Midnight Black Belt Joined: 27 Jul 2016 Location: Argyle Ny Status: Offline Points: 1638 |
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No, nobody than got less than 15 combined. So if you got say a 12 in round one, you want at least a 4 in round two. The higher the better. Edited by catrad - 18 Sep 2018 at 5:58pm |
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Grp 96 The Farmer Who Not Grow Up
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JingleBells
NYC Midnight Addict Joined: 04 Feb 2018 Location: Adelaide Status: Offline Points: 909 |
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Great post thanks, and thanks Sootfoot for all the additional info too. I love that you both crawled into my thoughts, saw my musings and set out to clear the fog with fact and useful maths. Much appreciated!
I got 14 in the first round, which is a great start, but I knew it was not enough on its own. Here's hoping for a 4 or 5, but I seriously doubt my second effort is worth that much.
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TheDustyZebra
NYC Midnight Black Belt Joined: 22 Jan 2017 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 1709 |
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I can attest to that. I was a 20 last year that didn't advance.
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100MF2022 R1 G41 The Ties that Bind (Romance)
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TammyB
NYC Midnight Addict Joined: 13 Jul 2018 Location: virginia Status: Offline Points: 696 |
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I have a better chance of winning the lottery than advancing (3 in round 1), but it’s worth it to try this. It might be what gets me writing to submit to contests instead of rewriting my little novel again. And again. And again.
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myrhapsody
NYC Midnight Black Belt Joined: 16 Jul 2018 Location: Chicago Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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ROFL!
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