Advancement odds based on 2017 results |
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amlewi08
NYC Midnight Addict Joined: 16 Jul 2019 Location: Lexington, KY Status: Offline Points: 1125 |
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Posted: 12 Sep 2019 at 12:56pm |
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If that analysis just isn’t the sexiest thing I’ve ever seen.
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Steve I
NYC Midnight Regular Joined: 15 Jul 2018 Location: NYC Status: Offline Points: 394 |
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bumping for the stats analysis on pg. 1! Helps me realize I am targeting a 7 or higher to feel even slightly comfortable.
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FF2020 C1: The Town Pavilion, Great Springs, NY
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nixie
NYC Midnight Black Belt Joined: 01 Aug 2015 Location: Seattle, WA Status: Offline Points: 9048 |
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Or it decreases them - since the people who scored *high (the tough competition that you actually have to beat) aren't generally the ones who huff off.... :)
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HR Garcia
NYC Midnight Regular Joined: 09 Jul 2018 Location: Texas Status: Offline Points: 373 |
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Ooh, I wish there was a way for us to know how many were still in our groups. Then again, that would just increase the speculation madness, so maybe it's best we don't know.
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td333777
NYC Midnight Black Belt Joined: 29 Jan 2017 Location: MO Status: Offline Points: 2856 |
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I also think it’s much easier to advance if you get a double-digit score in round one, because I believe at least 3-4 people per heat drop out if they get zero points. That means you’re competing with fewer people in challenge two of the first round, which increases your odds of being in the top 15 and scoring enough points to move on.
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FF '17 - 1st, SSC '18 - 2nd, FF '20 - 7th
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nixie
NYC Midnight Black Belt Joined: 01 Aug 2015 Location: Seattle, WA Status: Offline Points: 9048 |
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Can't agree about 'some genres' - really has a lot to do with how comfortable that individual writer is. If you look at the inevitable recurring 'what genre are you dreading' threads that somehow turn up every first round, the answers are always across the board (with a skew for pol sat lol). So to me, less about the genre itself than about how comfortable the writers in your group are with it. but the core thing there is that NYCM is graded on a curve. there is no absolute scale - it changes with every group combination. That's how in a single year we end up with one group where - what was it, as 12? moved forward? and the group next door it was 21 or 22 to move forward? That's what it looks like when it grades on a curve.
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lisafox10800
NYC Midnight Black Belt Joined: 18 Jul 2016 Location: NJ Status: Offline Points: 9440 |
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I honestly think THIS is the most important consideration in scoring, and why it is entirely possible to get a 15-0 combination. Some genres naturally lend themselves to being crapshoots more than others, but at the root of it all is this.
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lisafoxiswriting.com
My short story collection, Core Truths, is now available wherever books are sold. |
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Noel Alcoba
NYC Midnight Addict Joined: 13 Jul 2018 Location: LFP, Washington Status: Offline Points: 1277 |
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YES. Life does happen. Ideally we'd all be sequestered somewhere with bottomless coffee, a view of the water, and zero interruptions. Personally, I write best on weekdays, early in the morning. Weekends are kind of a struggle because there's so much going on at home--instead of writing becoming THE main thing, it becomes one of many errands. Instead of a continuous, butt-in-seat write-a-thon, you get sporadic free periods of varying lengths. Five minutes here, twenty minutes there. Write when you can, kind of thing. And cold-starting is the mortal enemy of writing-momentum. Add the subjectivity and randomness of judges (and whatever THEIR day looks like) and the score really can be a gamble.
Then again, if you're writing's crap, it's crap. |
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WriterByNight
NYC Midnight Addict Joined: 04 Aug 2015 Location: Alaska/Texas Status: Offline Points: 1470 |
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Don’t forget life happens. During the SSC one year, my husband was in town for the first two rounds and deployed during the 24 hour round. I was holding down the fort with two-year-old twins and a four-year-old. Still managed to submit and earn an HM, but it was my worst story of any of the NYCM contests. Sometimes good stories get left behind for whatever reason. Also, the judges have their own tastes and different writers have different strengths. Sometimes people luck out with prompts and sometimes there’s just no faking it. For me, it’s a juggling kids thing. I’ll always try and submit something but I won’t let it interfere with home life. One year I was at a wedding for round two and didn’t submit because this is a fun hobby, but my rule is family first.
Edited by WriterByNight - 19 Sep 2018 at 2:47pm |
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FFC Final| Beyond the Veil
Micro R1 | How Could You? |
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Noel Alcoba
NYC Midnight Addict Joined: 13 Jul 2018 Location: LFP, Washington Status: Offline Points: 1277 |
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I will gladly collaborate with you in the future on a political-satire / ghost story mash-up! look out folks!
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