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Advancement odds based on 2017 results

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Noel Alcoba View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Noel Alcoba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 3:07pm
Originally posted by WriterByNight WriterByNight wrote:


Don’t forget life happens. During the SSC one year, my husband was in town for the first two rounds and deployed during the 24 hour round. I was holding down the fort with two-year-old twins and a four-year-old. Still managed to submit and earn an HM, but it was my worst story of any of the NYCM contests. 

Sometimes good stories get left behind for whatever reason. Also, the judges have their own tastes and different writers have different strengths. Sometimes people luck out with prompts and sometimes there’s just no faking it. 

For me, it’s a juggling kids thing. I’ll always try and submit something but I won’t let it interfere with home life. One year I was at a wedding for round two and didn’t submit because this is a fun hobby, but my rule is family first. 

YES.  Life does happen.  Ideally we'd all be sequestered somewhere with bottomless coffee, a view of the water, and zero interruptions.  Personally, I write best on weekdays, early in the morning.  Weekends are kind of a struggle because there's so much going on at home--instead of writing becoming THE main thing, it becomes one of many errands. Instead of a continuous, butt-in-seat write-a-thon, you get sporadic free periods of varying lengths.  Five minutes here, twenty minutes there.  Write when you can, kind of thing. And cold-starting is the mortal enemy of writing-momentum.

Add the subjectivity and randomness of judges (and whatever THEIR day looks like) and the score really can be a gamble.

Then again, if you're writing's crap, it's crap.
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lisafox10800 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote lisafox10800 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 3:11pm
Originally posted by sootfoot5 sootfoot5 wrote:

the other thing about scoring a 15 in the first round and a zero in the next is that you can’t horget this is kinda graded on the curve. So maybe you wrotethe hottest rom com the first round, but not only do you not have a clue about sci fi? But half the people in your group speak fluent Klingon and are experts st world building. 

I honestly think THIS is the most important consideration in scoring, and why it is entirely possible to get a 15-0 combination.

Some genres naturally lend themselves to being crapshoots more than others, but at the root of it all is this.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 5:13pm
Originally posted by lisafox10800 lisafox10800 wrote:

Originally posted by sootfoot5 sootfoot5 wrote:

the other thing about scoring a 15 in the first round and a zero in the next is that you can’t horget this is kinda graded on the curve. So maybe you wrotethe hottest rom com the first round, but not only do you not have a clue about sci fi? But half the people in your group speak fluent Klingon and are experts st world building. 

I honestly think THIS is the most important consideration in scoring, and why it is entirely possible to get a 15-0 combination.

Some genres naturally lend themselves to being crapshoots more than others, but at the root of it all is this.

Can't agree about 'some genres' - really has a lot to do with how comfortable that individual writer is.  If you look at  the inevitable recurring 'what genre are you dreading' threads that somehow turn up every first round, the answers are always across the board (with a skew for pol sat lol). So to me, less about the genre itself than about how comfortable the writers in your group are with it.  but the core thing there is that NYCM is graded on a curve. there is no absolute scale - it changes with every group combination.  That's how in a single year we end up with one group where - what was it, as 12? moved forward? and the group next door it was 21 or 22 to move forward?  That's what it looks like when it grades on a curve.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote td333777 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 5:52pm
I also think it’s much easier to advance if you get a double-digit score in round one, because I believe at least 3-4 people per heat drop out if they get zero points.  That means you’re competing with fewer people in challenge two of the first round, which increases your odds of being in the top 15 and scoring enough points to move on.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote HR Garcia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 5:57pm
Originally posted by td333777 td333777 wrote:

I also think it’s much easier to advance if you get a double-digit score in round one, because I believe at least 3-4 people per heat drop out if they get zero points.  That means you’re competing with fewer people in challenge two of the first round, which increases your odds of being in the top 15 and scoring enough points to move on.

Ooh, I wish there was a way for us to know how many were still in our groups. Then again, that would just increase the speculation madness, so maybe it's best we don't know.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 6:40pm
Originally posted by td333777 td333777 wrote:

I also think it’s much easier to advance if you get a double-digit score in round one, because I believe at least 3-4 people per heat drop out if they get zero points.  That means you’re competing with fewer people in challenge two of the first round, which increases your odds of being in the top 15 and scoring enough points to move on.

Or it decreases them - since the people who scored *high (the tough competition that you actually have to beat) aren't generally the ones who huff off.... :)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Steve I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Sep 2019 at 12:53pm
bumping for the stats analysis on pg. 1! Helps me realize I am targeting a 7 or higher to feel even slightly comfortable.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote amlewi08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Sep 2019 at 12:56pm
If that analysis just isn’t the sexiest thing I’ve ever seen.
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