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Advancement odds based on 2017 results

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jennifer.quail View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jennifer.quail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 8:40pm
...You guys are all way better at maths than I am. 
SSC 2020 R1 G77: The Artist Is Not Present
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Gudlyf Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 9:44pm
Speaking as a ZERO-pointer in round one...



Edited by Gudlyf - 18 Sep 2018 at 9:45pm
FFC1: 'Cosmic Canvas'
FFC2: 'Home'
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LaraH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 9:52pm
Originally posted by AllyM84 AllyM84 wrote:

Am I reading that right? No one that got less than 15 in the first round advanced to the second? 

no the 15 pts (well all of the numbers) is between the two challenges--meaning it is possible to get 15 on one and 0 on another and still move on.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WriterByNight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 10:45pm
Originally posted by Steve I Steve I wrote:

Got bored, its highly possible someone has already done this before!

< ="text/">
Writers with cumulative 15+ that didn't advance (note, nobody below 15 advanced) - 215
Highest Score to not advance - 21
ScoreFrequency
1583
1644
1735
1831
1915
206
211
< ="text/">
Writers who advanced - 400
Lowest score to advance - 15 (2)
ScoreFrequency
152
162
1721
1818
1937
2052
2144
2231
2347
2423
2533
2633
2718
2814
2915
3010


Odds of advancing based on scores:

< ="text/">
ScoreLiklihood of advancing
152.35%
164.35%
1737.50%
1836.73%
1971.15%
2089.66%
2197.78%
22100.00%
23100.00%
24100.00%
25100.00%
26100.00%
27100.00%
28100.00%
29100.00%
30100.00%


Neat to see these stats! Thanks for doing this. 
FFC 2019 R1 | The Smoke Jumper| 14 pts
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Lookit There Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 11:33pm
<rolling dice> C'mon 7!
Really, though, sometimes you can squeak in. One year I got a 0 followed by a 15, and missed going forward. But the advancing writer above me had a cumulative score of only 18, which seems somewhat low. So if the members of your heat have wildly varying scores, upsets can happen.


Edited by Lookit There - 18 Sep 2018 at 11:34pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sootfoot5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 11:39pm
 remember someone who made it through with a zero.  Or was it a 3?  Now I'm not sure.  She did win the whole thing once and then quit participating.  Rachel Dunlop. London Girl we called her.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote MadEyeMary Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 1:15am
This makes me want to poop and laugh all at once. Pressure is on!! I have a feeling I'm in a heat with some legit ass people. Like too cool to post on the forums kind of people. O_O
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AllyM84 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 7:56am
Originally posted by HR Garcia HR Garcia wrote:

So you're saying there's a chance.... ;)

bahahahahaha. Perfection. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AllyM84 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 7:57am
Originally posted by Gudlyf Gudlyf wrote:

Speaking as a ZERO-pointer in round one...


Omg, we can post Gifs here??? This changes EVERYTHING.

Also, A+ gif usage
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AllyM84 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 8:00am
Originally posted by catrad catrad wrote:

Originally posted by AllyM84 AllyM84 wrote:

Am I reading that right? No one that got less than 15 in the first round advanced to the second? 


No, nobody than got less than 15 combined.  So if you got say a 12 in round one, you want at least a 4 in round two.  The higher the better.



Gotcha. So, I need a 6 or higher....Hey, it could happen...



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