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Advancement odds based on 2017 results

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Steve I View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Steve I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:44pm
Originally posted by AllyM84 AllyM84 wrote:

Am I reading that right? No one that got less than 15 in the first round advanced to the second? 

Sorry, nobody with a less than 15 cumulative score from challenges 1 and 2 advanced to the next round!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (10) Thanks(10)   Quote Zblugg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:46pm
That's when you start running the numbers until they crystalize, then attempt a self-assessment of your piece, then try to gauge your odds, and end up a dry husk on the side of the road with unpaid bills.

Moral of the story: pay your bills and don't do crystal maths.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote nixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:50pm
If you search the forum for "all the scores" - the threads with the score spreadsheet have a lot of this from prior years.  Overall - it's pretty random, group to group (in one group someone with a score in the teens advances, in another it takes low 20s).  There's also - for one year - some digging as to whether folks who post on the forums are more likely to do well, etc.  Worth searching the old posts if you are interested in that sort of thing.  The All the Scores spreadsheet presently goes back 3 or 4 years...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cosima Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:55pm
Can you calculate a coefficient for the overall correlation between First and Second round scores? I'm curious. Thanks for doing this!!!

Stats can be fun -- who knew?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sootfoot5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:59pm
and then you should know how they handle ties. 


In cases of ties, the writer with the highest placement in either of the challenges will advance. For example, if two writers are tied for 5th place with 16 points, with one writer placing 1st (15 points) and 15th (1 point) in the challenges and the other writer placing 8th (8 points) and 9th (7 points) in their corresponding challenges, the writer who placed 1st in one of the challenges will advance because of the higher placement. If a winner can still not be decided (i.e. both writers highest placement is the same), then the writer that places higher in Challenge #2 will advance. Points are not used beyond the 1st Round of the competition, and the placement and point totals of each writer in the 1st Round will have no bearing on future rounds.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote catrad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 5:39pm
Originally posted by AllyM84 AllyM84 wrote:

Am I reading that right? No one that got less than 15 in the first round advanced to the second? 


No, nobody than got less than 15 combined.  So if you got say a 12 in round one, you want at least a 4 in round two.  The higher the better.




Edited by catrad - 18 Sep 2018 at 5:58pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JingleBells Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:32pm
Great post thanks,  and thanks Sootfoot for all the additional info too. I love that you both crawled into my thoughts,  saw my musings and set out to clear the fog with fact and useful maths. Much appreciated! 
I got 14 in the first round,  which is a great start,  but I knew it was not enough on its own.  Here's hoping for a 4 or 5, but I seriously doubt my second effort is worth that much. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote TheDustyZebra Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:33pm
Originally posted by rossinny rossinny wrote:

 Still though, scoring 20 or above and not advancing must really hurt.
 

I can attest to that. I was a 20 last year that didn't advance. Cry
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TammyB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:58pm
I have a better chance of winning the lottery than advancing (3 in round 1), but it’s worth it to try this. It might be what gets me writing to submit to contests instead of rewriting my little novel again. And again. And again.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote myrhapsody Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 8:38pm
Originally posted by Zblugg Zblugg wrote:

That's when you start running the numbers until they crystalize, then attempt a self-assessment of your piece, then try to gauge your odds, and end up a dry husk on the side of the road with unpaid bills.

Moral of the story: pay your bills and don't do crystal maths.

ROFL! LOL
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