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Advancement odds based on 2017 results

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Steve I View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (10) Thanks(10)   Quote Steve I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Advancement odds based on 2017 results
    Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 2:44pm
Got bored, its highly possible someone has already done this before!

< ="text/">
Writers with cumulative 15+ that didn't advance (note, nobody below 15 advanced) - 215
Highest Score to not advance - 21
ScoreFrequency
1583
1644
1735
1831
1915
206
211
< ="text/">
Writers who advanced - 400
Lowest score to advance - 15 (2)
ScoreFrequency
152
162
1721
1818
1937
2052
2144
2231
2347
2423
2533
2633
2718
2814
2915
3010


Odds of advancing based on scores:

< ="text/">
ScoreLiklihood of advancing
152.35%
164.35%
1737.50%
1836.73%
1971.15%
2089.66%
2197.78%
22100.00%
23100.00%
24100.00%
25100.00%
26100.00%
27100.00%
28100.00%
29100.00%
30100.00%
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThePaleKing Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 2:56pm
Good skills - very interesting 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nic6879 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 2:58pm
This is fantastic! Thanks for your efforts creating this!! This is my first time doing the FFC, and it's really helpful to see in clear numbers.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Log_Lady Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:03pm
Massive thanks for doing this! Now I have exact percentages to tie to my fears LOL. Seriously, I’m very grateful. 
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Steve I View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote Steve I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:27pm
No problem, it was fun!

That said, those odds don't tell the full story of course.

Since we have first and second round scores, we can also look at what a first round score implies about your likely second round score. 

For example, among people who scored 15 in the first round, not only did 66 of 80 (82.5%) advance, but also based on last years results (s=80), getting a 15 in the first round indicated a 65% chance of scoring a 7 or better in round 2, totaling 22 or the threshold for guaranteed advancement (based on last years results).

 


Edited by Steve I - 18 Sep 2018 at 3:28pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote HR Garcia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:33pm
So you're saying there's a chance.... ;)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rainbowsockmonkey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:36pm
Originally posted by Steve I Steve I wrote:

No problem, it was fun!

That said, those odds don't tell the full story of course.

Since we have first and second round scores, we can also look at what a first round score implies about your likely second round score. 

For example, among people who scored 15 in the first round, not only did 66 of 80 (82.5%) advance, but also based on last years results (s=80), getting a 15 in the first round indicated a 65% chance of scoring a 7 or better in round 2, totaling 22 or the threshold for guaranteed advancement (based on last years results).

 
 
ohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohplease  COME ON 7!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nod1v1ng Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:38pm
Originally posted by Rainbowsockmonkey Rainbowsockmonkey wrote:

 
ohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohplease  COME ON 7!

Me ^^^ exactly. C2 was a little out of my element....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AllyM84 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:41pm
Am I reading that right? No one that got less than 15 in the first round advanced to the second? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rossinny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:43pm
I'm always a sucker for the numbers, thanks for doing this.

I think I worked out last year that it was possible to not advance with a score of 25 - although that is incredibly unlikely of course! Still though, scoring 20 or above and not advancing must really hurt.

And as a natural pessimist, I look at the 82.5% of 15 pointers who advanced and think, "crikey, 17.5% not advancing is actually quite high...."
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