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What's a rough average to advance to FF round 3?

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Dogmafrog View Drop Down
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    Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 1:44am
I know it's gotta vary a bit, but is there a rough average for the minimum advance score? I can't imagine most folks blaze through with 30 or 29. I figure it's prob more like 22 or so? But this is my first one, curious if there are stats.

Edited by Dogmafrog - 14 Sep 2017 at 1:45am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MattrickBT Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 1:46am
I'd say 16 for minimum advance score (this is my first time) but that accounts for two 8 scores. I imagine the average advancing score is around 21.


Edited by MattrickBT - 14 Sep 2017 at 1:49am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote rossinny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 1:54am
I think the average score for advancing last year was 18. Nixie is your man for the stats - have a look at the "what if I get a zero" thread, I think it's all in there somewhere.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Liz M Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 1:55am
People have advanced on 15. It depends on your group.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (4) Thanks(4)   Quote rossinny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 1:58am
Originally posted by rossinny rossinny wrote:

I think the average score for advancing last year was 18. Nixie is your man for the stats - have a look at the "what if I get a zero" thread, I think it's all in there somewhere.


I just found it. All credit goes to Nixie for these great stats. I was wrong in that 18 is not the average score for advancing but rather the average minimum score for advancing, slightly different.

The minimum score it took to move forward to Round 2 last year was

14 points in 2 of the groups (3%)
15 points in 6 of the groups (10%)
16 points in 7 of the groups (12%)
17 points in 6 of the groups (10%)
18 points in 10 of the groups (17%)
19 points in 14 of the groups (23%)
20 points in 4 of the groups (7%)
21 points in 6 of the groups (10%)
22 points in 3 of the groups (5%)
23 points in 2 of the groups (3%)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DBA Lehane Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 1:59am
There's always 30 points advancers each year. They tend to outnumber 15 points advancers (you may get 1 0f those per year). I think someone years ago worked out that a combined scored of 23 is a pretty good bet to advance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Xoon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 9:19am
Originally posted by rossinny rossinny wrote:


The minimum score it took to move forward to Round 2 last year was

23 points in 2 of the groups (3%)

I'm trying to figure out how that's even possible.  11 points is top 5, so if you got that for both heats, you'd think it would be impossible not to be in at 22.

I guess that's why I write instead of handle statistics.


Edited by Lord Xoon - 14 Sep 2017 at 9:20am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote nixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 9:42am
There is no such thing. NYCM is graded on a curve.  The score to advance is "better than 85% of the other people in your group."

One can show 'what scores it took in round x of contest y' but those numbers are different for every contest and round.  The scores someone quoted above are fairly representative, but that mix changes every time. The only thing that can be said with any certainty is that you will need at least 13 points: if everyone who scores in round one fails to score in round 2, you will have 2 15s, 2 14s, 2 13s  - that's 6 people. Only five advance.  If any of those people score twice, the numbers only go up. 

So - there is no 'average' when grading on a curve. statistical means vary depending on whether the writers who score well are repeat offenders or just have a good round. but you cannot advance with a score of less than 13 overall from both rounds. 

Also - I got tired of looking that spreadsheet up and re-linking it.  There is a thread called 'historical scores' whose only purpose, as far as i am concerned, is to make it easy to search for "scores' and find the stupid link. :)



Edited by nixie - 14 Sep 2017 at 9:46am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 9:45am
Originally posted by Lord Xoon Lord Xoon wrote:

Originally posted by rossinny rossinny wrote:


The minimum score it took to move forward to Round 2 last year was

23 points in 2 of the groups (3%)

I'm trying to figure out how that's even possible.  11 points is top 5, so if you got that for both heats, you'd think it would be impossible not to be in at 22.

I guess that's why I write instead of handle statistics.

because it doesnt account for the way that scores combine

15 + 10 = 35
13 + 12 = 25
14 + 11 = 25
12 + 15 = 27
11 + 14 = 25
10 + 13 = 23

and there you have a set of results in which  the person who had 23 points across 2 rounds can't advance because they needed 25 to beat out the rest of their groups

basically, the fallacy is that there is 'a number' - when the contest is graded on a curve. .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rossinny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 9:48am
Originally posted by Lord Xoon Lord Xoon wrote:

Originally posted by rossinny rossinny wrote:


The minimum score it took to move forward to Round 2 last year was

23 points in 2 of the groups (3%)

I'm trying to figure out how that's even possible.  11 points is top 5, so if you got that for both heats, you'd think it would be impossible not to be in at 22.

I guess that's why I write instead of handle statistics.
 
Ah, it's the scores below 11 in this scenario that can lead to lots of combinations that could top 22 e.g. 13+10, 14+9, 15+8 etc.  I think the maximum you could get and potentially not go through is 24, but you'd have to be VERY unlucky.
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