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What's a rough average to advance to FF round 3?

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Evil Tomato View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Evil Tomato Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 9:51am
Originally posted by Lord Xoon Lord Xoon wrote:

Originally posted by rossinny rossinny wrote:


The minimum score it took to move forward to Round 2 last year was

23 points in 2 of the groups (3%)

I'm trying to figure out how that's even possible.  11 points is top 5, so if you got that for both heats, you'd think it would be impossible not to be in at 22.

I guess that's why I write instead of handle statistics.

The thing is one person can get 15 in the first heat and 8 in the second (total score 23), and another person can get 8 in the first heat and 15 in the second, for a score of 23.

Similary two people could get 14 and 9, and two more people 13 and 10, and one more person 12 and 12, so all up 7 people could get a score higher than 22, despite poor Elevensies scoring in the top 5 of each heat.

The thing that might make that seem a bit less counter-intuitive is that 15 is lots better than 11, but 10 is only very very slightly worse than 11, so when you average over two heats the scores that just missed being in the top 5, like 10 and 9, still count for a lot.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Xoon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 10:26am
Regardless of how the math works out and that it's a proven possibility with examples, I'm still protesting if I score another 12 and don't make it through :p
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote nixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 11:32am
All right stat monkeys - in addition to updating with round one scores, the FFC Scores spreadsheet has two new tabs available at the back

One is a grid showing all the possible score combinations. the second is that same grid - but for each row (first round score) i have matched a column (second round score) by turning the text in that cell white.  It's basically an 'if scenario."  If the person who scores 15 in round one scores x in round 2, their total score is y"  With that logic, each row and each column can only be represented once (except, ofc, 0)

figure out what combinations you want to look at - and you can determine the 'lowest viable score needed to advance ' based on your scenario.  Have fun...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nod1v1ng Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 1:07pm
Originally posted by nixie nixie wrote:

All right stat monkeys - in addition to updating with round one scores, the FFC Scores spreadsheet has two new tabs available at the back

One is a grid showing all the possible score combinations. the second is that same grid - but for each row (first round score) i have matched a column (second round score) by turning the text in that cell white.  It's basically an 'if scenario."  If the person who scores 15 in round one scores x in round 2, their total score is y"  With that logic, each row and each column can only be represented once (except, ofc, 0)

figure out what combinations you want to look at - and you can determine the 'lowest viable score needed to advance ' based on your scenario.  Have fun...


Oh Nixie, you are such a nerd. I love you so.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote nixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 2:48pm
Originally posted by nod1v1ng nod1v1ng wrote:

Originally posted by nixie nixie wrote:

All right stat monkeys - in addition to updating with round one scores, the FFC Scores spreadsheet has two new tabs available at the back

One is a grid showing all the possible score combinations. the second is that same grid - but for each row (first round score) i have matched a column (second round score) by turning the text in that cell white.  It's basically an 'if scenario."  If the person who scores 15 in round one scores x in round 2, their total score is y"  With that logic, each row and each column can only be represented once (except, ofc, 0)

figure out what combinations you want to look at - and you can determine the 'lowest viable score needed to advance ' based on your scenario.  Have fun...


Oh Nixie, you are such a nerd. I love you so.

right back atcha nod....  There are stat monkeys in this forum who will be swinging from that vine from now til the prompts come out ;)  Be interesting to see what they come up with...Big smile

(and now, you know my secret.  Nixie doesn't actually do things.  She just gathers things and puts them where entertaining people will find them and play with them.  Master list, score spreadsheet - it's all just "populating the toybox so I can watch what y'all come up with"  Wink )
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Trond24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 4:43pm
Xoon - there are also ties to consider, beyond the scenarios that others have pointed out.

Consider the below - using your example of scoring 11 in each challenge.
Ties are broken by who placed highest overall, so your 11 would lose out to EIGHT others. :-P

But yes, if you score 11 / 11 and fail to progress, you are allowed to call down the Hammer of Thor upon your group-mates.

Score1     Score2          Combined
15     7          22
14     8          22
13     9          22
12     10          22
11     11          22
10     12          22
9     13          22
8     14          22
7     15          22
"Every time I think I've seen it all, a person comes along and objects to the mistreatment of rubber chickens."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote nixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2017 at 5:05pm
Originally posted by Trond24 Trond24 wrote:



But yes, if you score 11 / 11 and fail to progress, you are allowed to call down the Hammer of Thor upon your group-mates.


This seems reasonable to me
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote lindamuse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2017 at 4:57pm
Nixie, can you provide a link to the master list (the one where groups are numbered and people can go straight to their group number and read stories. I have the link set up on my laptop at home but I'm away on holidays at the moment ( with just my iPad) and can't figure out how to get back to that page
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote steph9289 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2017 at 4:59pm
Here's the link you're looking for!

http://forums.nycmidnight.com/challenge-1-master-list_topic14997.html

Edited by steph9289 - 18 Sep 2017 at 5:00pm
#amrevising
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2017 at 7:23pm
thanks Steph!!

Muse, at the top of the Creative Writing Corner forum is a link to the contest forum.  The master list is always at the top of the contest forum.  When a new challenge comes, the new challenge's master list will be at the top, and the one before will be right below it. :)
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